Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Houston Astros
Unfortunately, the Houston Astros will be chalk once again, so this article will remain very similar to yesterday. Houston featured one of the top offenses in the MLB in 2018, ranking sixth in the league in runs scored, 10th in home runs, and seventh in team batting average and OPS. They were at their best away from home, where they hit .262 with a .446 slugging percentage and a .777 OPS. They also averaged 5.2 runs and 3.5 extra-base hits per game on the road. The Astros are -204 favorites in a game set at 9 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 5.4 runs.
Houston gets a matchup against Shelby Miller, who only threw in five games (four starts) last season. In those games, he posted an 0-4 record with a 10.69 ERA and a 2.00 WHIP. He also allowed a 2.8 HR/9, while recording a 10.7 K/9 over 16 innings. Throughout his career, Miller has struggled against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .265 average with a .432 slugging percentage and a .336 wOBA. He has been significantly worse since joining the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2016. In his last full season (2016), Miller allowed left-handed batters to hit for a .326/.541/.400 line. He also allowed right-handed batters to hit for a .279/.430/.329 line in that season. Miller looks to be one of the worst pitchers in the MLB at this point, and Houston features one of the best offenses. This is an easy stack to get behind.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Toronto Blue Jays
Similarly to the Houston Astros, the Toronto Blue Jays were in this spot last night, and they need to be locked in here again tonight. The Blue Jays featured plenty of ups and downs throughout the 2018 season, as they ended the year ranked 17th in the MLB in runs scored, fifth in home runs, 19th in team batting average, and 13th in OPS. They were better in Toronto, though, where they posted a .248 average with a .447 slugging percentage and a .761 OPS. The Blue Jays also averaged 4.5 runs and 3.7 extra-base hits per game at home last season. Tonight, they are -187 favorites in a game set at 8.5 runs, and they feature an implied run total of 5.0 runs.
The Blue Jays get a matchup against Andrew Cashner, who posted a 4-15 record with a 5.29 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP over 28 starts. He also allowed a 1.5 HR/9, while struggling with a 5.8 K/9 over 153 innings. Cashner struggled against everyone last season. He allowed right-handed batters to hit for a .301 average with a .483 slugging percentage and a .370 wOBA, while lefties hit for a .277/.508/.361 line in 2018. Cashner already drew a start for Baltimore, allowing six earned runs (one home run) over only four innings against the New York Yankees. While this will be an easier matchup, he’s throwing in an extremely hitter friendly stadium, and Toronto comes with quite a bit of upside in this matchup.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
New York Mets
The New York Mets got off to a hot start in 2018, but struggled over the entire season. Overall, they ranked 23rd in the MLB in runs scored, 21st in home runs, 29th in team batting average, and 24th in OPS. They were better on the road, though, where they posted a .252 average with a .421 slugging percentage and a .752 OPS. New York also averaged 4.9 runs and 3.3 extra-base hits per game. They are -128 favorites in a game set at 8 runs tonight, and they own an implied run total of 4.3 runs.
Jose Urena flashed at times during the 2018 season, but he posted a 9-12 record with a 3.98 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP over 31 starts. He also allowed a 1.0 HR/9, while recording a 6.7 K/9 over 174 innings. Unsurprisingly, Urena struggled more against left-handed batters in 2018, allowing them to hit for a .261 average with a .447 slugging percentage and a .332 wOBA. He also allowed a .262/.432/.327 line to his opponents in Miami. Urena threw in one game so far this season, allowing six runs (five earned runs) with one home run over 4.2 innings. The Mets have a significantly better offense this season, and they come with tremendous upside on a near nightly basis.
Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor
Michael Brantley
Brantley is at his best against right-handed pitching, posting 0.063 wOBA and 0.079 ISO differentials against righties. He also recorded a .509 slugging percentage against right-handed pitching in 2018. Furthermore, Brantley gets arguably the best matchup in a hitter friendly stadium tonight.
Rowdy Tellez
I originally had Austin Meadows here, but him getting rest today forced my hand for another Tellez recommendation. He owns elite 0.341 wOBA and 0.356 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching. He has also posted a .789 slugging percentage against righties early in his career. Tonight is the night.
Rhys Hoskins
Hoskins has been better throughout his career against right-handed pitching, owning 0.063 wOBA and 0.164 ISO differentials against righties. He has also posted a .570 slugging percentage against righties, while recording 44 of his 53 home runs against them. This is a difficult matchup, but Max Scherzer has struggled with home runs in the past.
Nolan Arenado
Arenado posted elite numbers against left-handed pitching last season, recording an elite .747 slugging percentage against them. He also owns 0.137 wOBA and 0.153 ISO differentials against lefties. He gets a tough matchup against Blake Snell, but Arenado is an elite hitter against left-handed pitching, and Snell won’t change that.
Mark Canha
Canha is another player that gets a tough matchup, but has dominated left-handed pitching. He owns 0.083 wOBA and 0.184 ISO differentials against lefties. Canha recorded a dominant .604 slugging percentage against left-handed pitching last season, as well.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Jason Vargas
Vargas struggled throughout the 2018 season, posting a 7-9 record with a 5.77 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP over 20 starts. He allowed a terrible 1.8 HR/9, while recording an 8.2 K/9 over 92 innings. Vargas was significantly better in the second half of the season, though. He owned an 8.60 ERA through his first 37.2 innings, while recording a 3.81 ERA over his last 54.1 innings. Vargas also posted a 4.42 xFIP and 4.32 SIERA, suggesting he was significantly better than his ERA displays. Vargas is a -128 favorite in a game set at 8 runs, and his opponents feature an implied run total of only 3.8 runs.
He gets an elite matchup against the Miami Marlins, who lead the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking third last on the slate in team wOBA. Vargas was significantly better against left-handed batters last season, holding them to a .250 average with a .381 slugging percentage and a .323 wOBA. With that being said, he has been a relatively similar pitcher against both left- and right-handed batters, although righties have hit for more power against him. Vargas gets the added bonus of player in an extremely pitcher friendly stadium, and he’s cheap enough to be considered in all leagues.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Omar Narvaez
I’m going back to the well with Narvaez, who is still a bit too cheap. He enjoyed a relatively strong 2018 season for a catcher, hitting .275 with a .429 slugging percentage and a .794 OPS. He was also at his best against right-handed pitching, recording 0.11 wOBA and 0.141 ISO differentials against righties. Narvaez has also flashed solid power this season, hitting two home runs through only 23 at-bats this far.
He gets a matchup against Trevor Cahill, who struggled against left-handed batters last season. He allowed lefties to hit for a .240 average with a .365 slugging percentage and a .296 wOBA. Narvaez is expected to hit sixth in the Seattle Mariners lineup, which is relatively high for a salary relief catcher. He can be considered in all leagues tonight.
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