Welcome everyone to Ben’s Pitching Preview! This season I will be getting back to my roots and focusing on my top SP options for each slate. After all, a SP Breakdown was my first ever regular article on this site when I started providing content many years ago.
Our Core Plays have been great to start the season, you can pick up a package here.
Let’s get into it!
Joe Musgrove
It’s smaller Monday slate, but we do have a few aces on the hill starting with Joe Musgrove. I’m in the camp of believing Musgrove was an ace before his no-hitter, but the secret is out and his price has skyrocketed in DFS. Dating back to the start of 2020 he has nearly 34% strikeouts with over 14% swinging strikes. He gets another great match-up tonight vs the Brewers, who are without Christian Yelich. Over that same span, this lineup projects for a 27% strikeout rate vs right-handed pitching with a sub-.305 wOBA. I’m not scared of single batter for the Brewers right now, and Musgrove combines his strikeouts with 50% grounders to both sides of the plate. He is my clear SP1 on Monday night.
Dustin May
I noted above that Musgrove was my clear SP1, and I believe May is the clear second best play tonight. Many had written him off as a better in real life than fantasy pitcher heading into 2021. It’s important to remember he is just 23 years old, and it’s unlikely we know what he can truly be as an MLB pitcher yet. That being said, he looked primed to take a jump in strikeouts this season and that has been the case thus far. His swinging strikes are over 14% (Musgrove-level) this season compared to 10% in 2020. This has resulted in a nice K boost for the young star, and that trend should continue tonight. This is a free-swinging Mariners lineup, that projects to strike out over a quarter of the time as a team. Like Musgrove, May is able to combat a lineup with 50% ground balls when he doesn’t have his best stuff. His price is way up, but I think he is worth the spend in this match-up.
Dylan Bundy
When searching for a third option that isn’t expensive, Bundy sticks out as too cheap on DK. Bundy is another guy that can rack up K’s in a hurry, which is what we love targeting in DFS. Given his strikeout rate of nearly 28% over the last two seasons, it doesn’t make sense to be sub-8K in salary. This is a positive strikeout match-up against a free-swinging Rangers lineup. Bundy’s one weakness is power, specifically to lefties, and there are some power threats in this lineup. He does have a good change up to neutralize the left-handed batters, however, and it’s a pitch that Gallo, Dahl and Calhoun all struggle against. He is a great pivot in tournaments.
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
