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Pitcher
Justin’s Pick: Justin Verlander
Justin Verlander is an elite pitching option, who has featured ups and downs early this season. He owns a 2-0 record with a 3.52 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP through four starts. He has also flashed elite upside with a 31.3% strikeout rate and a 13.4% swinging strike rate. He’ll be traveling to the Texas Rangers’ hitter-friendly stadium, where they are at their best, but Verlander is one of the best arms in the MLB, and should be able to neutralize them. He has already posted 30+ fantasy points in two games this season, and it’s clear that the Houston Astros will allow him to throw well over 100 pitches on any given night. Verlander allowed four runs over four innings in his first matchup against Texas this season, and he’s in an elite redemption spot tonight. He’s a -219 favorite in a game set at 9.5 runs, giving the Rangers an implied run total of only 3.8 runs tonight.
Jason’s Reaction: Verlander is an interesting option in tournaments tonight. Due to the hitter-friendly nature of Globe Life Park in Arlington, I’ll be avoiding him in cash games, but his upside definitely warrants consideration in larger contests.
Jason’s Pick: Caleb Smith
As far as pitchers are concerned, the game to target is the Miami Marlins and Washington Nationals. Betting trends can actually be helpful in this situation. A large majority of the bets are coming in on the Nationals, but the Marlins are picking up most of the money. That means the ‘sharps’ of the industry are likely on Miami, which helps Caleb Smith’s case. As far as fantasy is concerned, he sports a better K/9 than Anibal Sanchez at 9.9. His HR/9 is also lower at 1.0. Over the last 15 days, he has a swinging strike percentage (SS%) of 14.3, his hard hit rate is down 10%, and he is inducing ground balls at a 33% clip. Smith could definitely pick up the win tonight, and even if he doesn’t, the loss will likely be on the bullpen. Smith and Sanchez have very similar price tags, so stacking them in cash makes sense, but fantasy owners will have to make a choice in tournaments. I recommend that choice be Smith.
Justin’s Reaction: I have no issues with Smith tonight, but I lean slightly more towards Sanchez. Miami strikes out at a higher rate than Washington, and I tend to favor opponent’s strikeouts a bit more than pitcher’s strikeouts, excluding drastic cases.
Infielder
Justin’s Pick: Paul Goldschmidt
I originally wrote Eric Sogard in this spot, but it’s almost impossible to get off of Paul Goldschmidt here. He gets an elite matchup against Jason Vargas, who is one of the worst pitchers in the MLB. Early this season, he has allowed a 48.3% fly ball rate to go along with a 14.3% HR/FB rate. Goldschmidt hasn’t necessarily been an elite option against left-handed pitching this season, but he has looked outstanding against lefties throughout his career. He enters this game with 53% hard-hit and 43% fly ball rates to go along with a 95 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. Goldschmidt is hitting second in the St. Louis Cardinals lineup, and he could be in line for a home run tonight.
Jason’s Reaction: Pair Goldschmidt with Matt Carpenter (see below), and win. It really should be that simple tonight. Great recommendation.
Jason’s Pick: Matt Carpenter
Matt Carpenter gets a great matchup tonight against the New York Mets and Jason Vargas. Vargas is allowing 1.8 HR/9 and sports a horrible 1.505 WHIP. Carpenter has a high 0.063 HR/AB, and while his ISO and wOBA differentials are negative tonight, the strong winds from left to right field should help the ball carry. In the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 245 feet, a fly ball rate of 55%, and a hard hit rate of 47%. The home run potential should be rather obvious. His recent batted ball luck suggests that he has been unlucky at the plate, so his low .203 batting average should start the climb. Pairing Carpenter with Paul Goldschmidt tonight is expensive, but if the salary is available, it makes for a very high-upside mini-stack.
Justin’s Reaction: Carpenter has burned me a few times this season, but he has been heating up a bit recently. I have no issues playing him, especially in this matchup. Vargas realistically isn’t an MLB pitcher.
Outfielder
Justin’s Pick: Franmil Reyes
Franmil Reyes has struggled early this season, but he’s finally heating up. Over his last 10 games, he’s hitting .300 with a .733 slugging percentage and a 1.097 OPS. Over that span, he owns five extra-base hits (four home runs) and six RBI. He has also posted 51% hard-hit and 40% fly ball rates with a 97 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. Reyes gets a plus matchup against Anthony DeSclafani, who has struggled with 45.9% fly ball and 23.5% HR/FB rates. Reyes is hitting second in the San Diego Padres lineup, and his price tag doesn’t truly represent his recent production. He’s a player that can be considered in all leagues on this slate.
Jason’s Reaction: Reyes has been unbelievably unlucky at the plate to start this 2019 campaign. His price tag is much lower than his advanced statistics suggest it should be. All aboard the Reyes train. Choo! Choo!
Jason’s Pick: David Dahl
David Dahl has been absolutely crushing the ball at the plate over the last 15 days. He has an average batted ball distance of 269 feet, an average exit velocity of 99 MPH(!), and a hard hit rate of 55%. Dahl is no secret. He sports a .342 batting average, two home runs, and six RBIs on the season. The Colorado Rockies are playing at home tonight against the Philadelphia Phillies and home-run-prone, right-handed Vincent Velasquez. Dahl enters this game with 0.062 ISO and 0.065 wOBA differentials against right-handed pitching, and his HR/AB is up to 0.063. Hitting second in the order, Dahl has both RBI potential and should see an extra at-bat before all is said and done. Do not avoid him, even if his price tag is high, tonight.
Justin’s Reaction: The 15 days is a bit skewed because it’s only three games, but it’s hard not to love Dahl. He’s an elite option in all leagues tonight.
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