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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Houston Astros
The Houston Astros have featured plenty of ups and downs early this season. They currently rank 21st in the MLB in runs scored, 13th in home runs, second in team batting average, and seventh in OPS. They were a significantly better offense on the road last season, where they hit for a .262 average, .446 slugging percentage, and .777 OPS. Houston also averaged 5.2 runs and 3.5 extra-base hits per game away from home in 2018. Tonight, they are -213 favorites in a game set at 9.5 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 5.8 runs.
Houston gets an elite matchup against Drew Smyly, who owns an 0-1 record with a 7.15 ERA and a 1.85 WHIP through three starts. He also owns a 5.75 xFIP and 5.37 SIERA, suggesting his struggles will continue. Smyly enters this game with 41.7% fly ball and 13.3% HR/FB percentages, while also recording a 20% strikeout rate. Furthermore, his swinging strike rate sits at only 8.2% this season. Throughout his career, he has been worse against right-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .259 average with a .445 slugging percentage and a .328 wOBA. That has also been the case early this season, and the Houston lineup features a plethora of elite right-handed batters, who hit left-handed pitching well. There will be a pair of “Chalk Stacks” on this slate, but it’s hard to avoid some of the Astros bats in cash games tonight.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Colorado Rockies
The Colorado Rockies have played the majority of their games on the road this season, and that has led to below average offensive results. The Rockies rank 24th in the MLB in runs scored, 26th in home runs and OPS, and 25th in team batting average through 19 games. In 2018, the Rockies hit .287 with a .503 slugging percentage and an .852 OPS in Colorado. They also averaged 5.5 runs and 3.9 extra-base hits per game at home. Colorado is a -145 favorite in a game set at 10 runs tonight, and they feature the second highest implied run total on the slate at 5.5 runs.
The Rockies get a matchup against Vince Velasquez, who owns a 2.25 ERA and a 0.75 WHIP through three games (two starts). While his numbers on the surface are fine, his 4.54 xFIP and 4.71 SIERA suggest that he’ll see regression as the season progresses. Velasquez has also struggled early with 41.9% fly ball and 15.4% HR/FB rates. His strikeout percentage is also down significantly this season, as it sits at 18.6% in 2019, but 25.3% in his career. The same can be said for his swinging strike percentage, which dropped from 10.7% (career) to 5.7% (2019). In 2018, Velasquez struggled against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .288 average with a .529 slugging percentage and a .377 wOBA. He’s a player that has struggled to contain the power of left-handed batters, and that will only be emphasized in Coors tonight. The Rockies feature a dominant offense that could go overlooked because of their road struggles, although they will likely make up the second “Chalk Stack” of this Friday slate.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
St. Louis Cardinals
The St. Louis Cardinals have found quite a bit of offensive success through 18 games, ranking 10th in the MLB in runs scored and OPS, sixth in home runs, and 12th in team batting average. The Cardinals struggled at times at home last season, where they posted a .245 average with a .382 slugging percentage and a .696 OPS. They also averaged only 4.3 runs and 2.4 extra-base hits per game in St. Louis in 2018. The Cardinals are -145 favorites in a game set at 9 runs tonight, though, and they own an implied run total of 5 runs on this slate.
Jason Vargas will be taking the mound for the New York Mets. He owns a 1-0 record with a 14.21 ERA and a 2.84 WHIP through three games (two starts). Vargas also owns an 8.17 xFIP and a 6.71 SIERA this season, suggesting he’ll [obviously] see some positive regression with more starts, but will continue to struggle overall. Vargas has allowed 48.3% fly ball and 14.3% HR/FB rates through three games, while recording an absurdly low 8.1% strikeout rate. He also owns only a 4.5% swinging strike percentage, allowing his opponents to consistently put the ball in play. Vargas has struggled against everyone this season, but he was worse against right-handed batters in 2018. He allowed righties to hit for a .284 average with a .511 slugging percentage and a .359 wOBA. He also allowed his opponents to hit for a .299/.561/.394 line on the road last season. The Cardinals could go overlooked with some of the other games on this slate, but they come with as much upside in this matchup as any stack.
Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor
Paul Goldschmidt
Goldschmidt posted a .291 average with a .564 slugging percentage and a .273 ISO against left-handed pitching last season, and he gets an elite matchup against Jason Vargas tonight. Goldschmidt has been on fire recently, posting 53% hard-hit and 43% fly ball rates with a 95 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days.
Joc Pederson
Pederson owns five home runs over his last 10 games, and he has recorded 47% hard-hit and 50% fly ball rates with a 94 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. Pederson also owns 0.187 wOBA and 0.201 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching, and he’s hitting in an extremely hitter friendly stadium tonight.
Cody Bellinger
Bellinger is another Los Angeles Dodger, who will benefit from playing in a hitter friendly stadium. He has also been at his best against right-handed pitching, posting 0.114 wOBA and 0.158 ISO differentials against righties. Bellinger owns 62% hard-hit and 32% fly ball rates with a 98 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days, as well.
Justin Smoak
Smoak has quietly been performing well, posting 50% hard-hit and 58% fly ball rates with a 96 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. He also brings 0.084 wOBA and 0.12 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching into this game. Unfortunately, Smoak will be playing in a pitcher friendly stadium tonight.
Marcell Ozuna
Ozuna is another St. Louis Cardinal, who has performed well against left-handed pitching. He enters this game with 0.075 wOBA and 0.101 ISO differentials against lefties. He has also posted 51% hard-hit and 42% fly ball rates with a 96 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Jordan Zimmermann
Zimmermann has featured plenty of ups and downs early this season, recording an 0-2 record with a 4.29 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP through four starts. He also owns a less than inspiring 5.00 xFIP and 4.69 SIERA, although they aren’t too far off of his ERA. Zimmermann’s 47.7% fly ball and 12.9% HR/FB rates are up from his career averages, which is a bit concerning. He also owns a 17.9% strikeout rate with an 8.8 swinging strike rate. While his numbers are a bit concerning on face value, he’s a -106 favorite in a game set at 8.5 runs, and his opponents own an implied run total of only 4.3 runs.
Zimmermann gets a great matchup against the Chicago White Sox, who rank third on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking in the bottom-six of the slate in team wOBA. Zimmermann struggled against everyone last season, but he has been slightly better against right-handed batters throughout his career. He has held them to a .257 average with a .410 slugging percentage and a .305 wOBA. Zimmermann is coming off of two poor performances, but he scored 20+ fantasy points in each of his first two starts this season. He will see added strikeout potential because of the matchup, and he’s a solid tournament option for a low price tag on this larger slate.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Manuel Margot
I recommended Margot’s teammate, Franmil Reyes, in my Battle of the Bales article, and now it’s time for Margot’s recommendation. He has caught fire recently, hitting .314 with a .543 slugging percentage and an .857 OPS over his last 10 games. He also owns four extra-base hits (two home runs), five RBIs, and one steal over that span. Margot also owns 43% hard-hit and 54% fly ball rates with a 92 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. He has been slightly better against right-handed pitching, posting 0.015 wOBA and 0.018 ISO differentials against righties.
Margot gets a plus matchup against Anthony DeSclafani, who has struggled with a 7.43 ERA and a 1.65 WHIP early this season. He has also struggled with 45.9% fly ball and 23.5% HR/FB rates on the season. DeSclafani has been worse against left-handed batters throughout his career, but he’s still allowing righties to hit for a .251 average with a .375 slugging percentage and a .290 wOBA. Margot is expected to lead off for the San Diego Padres tonight, and he makes an outstanding tournament option tonight.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
