Welcome everyone to Ben’s Pitching Preview! This season I will be getting back to my roots and focusing on my top SP options for each slate. After all, a SP Breakdown was my first ever regular article on this site when I started providing content many years ago.
Our Core Plays have been great to start the season, you can pick up a package here.
Let’s get into it!
Frankie Montas
Like last night, we need to build some lineups we feel uncomfortable about. That starts with Montas, who is projected to be one of the highest-owned players on the slate. I’m a big fan on Montas in real-life, and I do think he is an underrated pitcher. He has one of the top matchups on the slate tonight vs the Detroit Tigers. Since the start of 2020, this Tigers lineup owns a .318 wOBA with over 25% strikeouts vs right-handed pitching. I will note that Montas is capable of blow up games, and his weakness comes against left-handed batters. In that same time frame, his wOBA allowed to lefties is .442 compared to .283 vs same-handed batters. The ISO allowed gets a huge spike as well, and the ground balls plummet. While these aren’t exactly quality major league hitters, there are six lefties in the Tigers lineup tonight. Point per dollar Montas is a great play, but can easily be faded if ownership gets out of control.
Zach Eflin
Eflin is more expensive than Montas on DK, but actually has arguably the better match-up. St. Louis’ lineup doesn’t project for the strikeout rate of the Tigers, but they are trotting out six right-handed batters rather than six lefties. We saw a nice bump in the K department from Eflin last season, and he has generated over 11% swinging strikes in 2021. Since the start of 2019, he is much better vs right-handed batters with a sub-.300 wOBA allowed and over 50% groundballs. He also relies heavily on a sinker, a pitch this Cardinals lineup tends to struggle with. Only three batters in their lineup have an ISO above .200 vs the pitch over the last few season, two of which are right-handed. I think Eflin has a similar ceiling to Montas, for what looks to be half the ownership on Friday night.
Yusei Kikuchi
“Cykuchi” was a regular feature in my articles last season, and tonight is a good night to hop back on the train. Early OWN% has him at under 15% ownership tonight, despite being one of my favorite options on the slate. The increased velo and strikeouts we saw from him in 2020 have carried over to this season. This makes him a completely different pitcher, and is still not something everyone in the DFS space has adjusted to. Secondly, due to Covid protocols, there’s a good chance he sees a watered down Astros lineup tonight. Their current projected lineup has a sub-.300 wOBA vs left-handed pitching since the start of last season. If Altuve/Bregman/Alvarez are once again out for Houston, Kikuchi will become my top play for Friday night.
Note: Max Scherzer will likely be the highest-owned SP now that Jacob deGrom has been PPD. The strikeouts have still been there for Max this season, but his fastball velocity is down to 93 MPH and his average exit velocity is up to 90. That being said, they might be counting on a big start from him tonight after that Patrick Corbin debacle. If I have the money, I would love to get up to Scherzer and I won’t rule it out as of now.
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
