Welcome everyone to Ben’s Pitching Preview! This season I will be getting back to my roots and focusing on my top SP options for each slate. After all, a SP Breakdown was my first ever regular article on this site when I started providing content many years ago.
Our Core Plays have been great to start the season, you can pick up a package here.
Let’s get into it!
Julio Urias
This is an ugly pitching slate, which leaves Urias as our top pitcher both in ability and price. I don’t love paying over $10K for someone with a 23% strikeout rate since the start of 2020, but we don’t have many pivots on this slate. I think Urias is a very underrated real-life pitcher. Similar to Dustin May, there’s also a chance we see him take a leap forward in the strikeout department as he matures. Urias as been around for five years, but is still just 24 years old. He has good stuff with over 12% swinging strikes, so the potential is there. This Rockies lineup looked last again last night, striking out 11 times. Only Trevor Story and Charlie Blackmon (lefty) own a wOBA above .320 vs left-handed pitching in their projected lineup. I actually think there’s a chance Urias ends up a bit lower-owned tonight as well, due to the lack of options and people wanting to spend up on bats. He’s my personal favorite play on Thursday night.
Rich Hill
Hill is another guy that seems overpriced on DK, but he is my next best grade after Urias against the Texas Rangers. Hill is certainly prone to bad games, but he looks primed for a bounce-back season in Tampa Bay. Small sample alert, but his xFIP is sub-4.00 through his first few starts of 2021, after nearing 5.00 in the shortened season. Since the start of 2020, this Rangers lineup boasts a 25% strikeout rate with an ISO below .140 vs southpaws. Chalk Hill is not something I thought I’d be rostering this season, but he is at the top of the list on this slate unfortunately.
Overall, these are my favorite two pitchers by far on this slate. These are the results of early OWN%
Patrick Corbin- 50%
Rich Hill- 45%
Julio Urias- 28%
Tarik Skubal- 25%
Sean Manaea- 25%
This is a collection of mediocre pitching, and people are going to have to play lineups they aren’t comfortable with on this slate. I will note, Corbin hasn’t been himself since 2019 and missed time earlier this season due to covid protocols. He didn’t look great in his first start, but the Diamondbacks lineup looks truly awful tonight. I’m not sure I want to bet on Corbin as chalk, but may end up needing to due to the lack of options. Skubal/Manaea are fine avoids for me as chalk, even though both their opponents do strike out.
If looking for a low-owned guy to take a shot on outside of the top three, it’s Jake Junis for me. The Blue Jays are projecting to be one of the higher-owned offenses on this slate, but they don’t match up super well with Junis. Don’t get me wrong, this isn’t some budding star pitcher, but I also don’t think he’s quite as bad as the rest of the industry. He relies heavily on his slider, which is a pitch that most of the Jays we like in DFS struggle with. Everyone except Gurriel and Tellez features a wOBA below .300 vs sliders since the start of 2017 in their projected lineup.
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
