Welcome everyone to Ben’s Pitching Preview! This season I will be getting back to my roots and focusing on my top SP options for each slate. After all, a SP Breakdown was my first ever regular article on this site when I started providing content many years ago.
Lance McCullers Jr and Dustin May
While I wouldn’t call these two “aces” just yet, these are two very good pitchers at the top of tonight’s slate.
Let’s take a look at their numbers since the start of 2019:
McCullers- 3.91 SIERA, 25.7% strikeouts, 60% ground balls
May- 4.00 SIERA, 21.6% strikeouts, 51% ground balls
These are similar pitchers, who can get ground balls and occasionally have spike games in the K department. May is someone that’s very young, and could take a leap this season, we just don’t know. For example, he struck out eight batters in his first start, much higher than anyone would have projected. Both have strong matchups as well, against the Tigers and Rockies respectively. Both lineups project to strike out around a quarter of the time vs right-handed pitching, and I consider these two as close as it can get. I like the idea of pairing them together, and will likely side with whichever is lower owned if picking one.
Carlos Rodon
Rodon was scratched from his last start due to a stomach ache, but draws the same match-up vs the Indians. I wrote him up in that spot, and I’m going to paste my analysis below since it’s the same exact situation. I do have added interest in him tonight, seeing as there aren’t as many aces today as there were a few days ago when he was scheduled to throw. Early OWN% has him as lowest-owned of everyone in this article, which adds to my interest.
He looked like the Rodon of old in his first start, striking out nine Mariners while topping out at 98 mph with his heater. This is a former top prospect, whose career has been derailed by injuries. He looked great in spring training, and carried that over into his first real action of 2021. Everyone knows I’m not a huge BVP guy, but he has owned this Indians team in his career. We have a 78 PA sample size of Rodon vs the Indians, resulting in a 25% strikeout rate for him while allowing just a .273 wOBA. There are two clear top dogs on this slate in Glasnow and Cole, which will leave ownership on Rodon minute on Monday night.
Charlie Morton
Morton is projecting to be the highest-owned pitcher on this slate against the Marlins. He is underpriced, and the Marlins are projected to send six righties to the plate. Morton has always been great vs same-handed batters, Dating back to the start of 2020, he’s allowed a .284 wOBA in the split. He’s also seen his strikeouts jump back up to around 26% early on this season, after a drop in 2020. Overall, I’m not sure if I will need to drop down to this price range, but I do view Morton as one of the top overall plays on the slate.
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
