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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
St. Louis Cardinals
The St. Louis Cardinals have featured plenty of ups and downs early this season, ranking 12th in the MLB in runs scored, 11th in home runs, 20th in team batting average, and 16th in OPS. St. Louis also featured a better offense on the road last season, where they posted a .253 average with a .435 slugging percentage and a .763 OPS. They averaged 5.0 runs and 3.3 extra-base hits per game on the road in 2018, as well. Tonight, the Cardinals are -113 favorites in a game set at 10.5 runs, giving them one of the highest implied run totals on the slate at 5.4 runs.
St. Louis gets a matchup against Tanner Roark, who has struggled early in 2019. Through two starts, he owns a 5.79 ERA and a 1.93 WHIP. He also owns a 5.01 xFIP and a 4.82 SIERA, suggesting he may see a small amount of positive regression as the season continues. Roark only owns a 7.1 career K/9, but he has also held his opponents to a 0.9 career HR/9, as well. Last season, he was at his worst against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .265 average with a .434 slugging percentage and a .332 wOBA. He also allowed right-handed batters to hit for a .260/.411/.307 line, though, as well. Roark has also struggled against lefties early this season. Keep in mind, this game will be playing in Mexico, where the air is thin, similar to Colorado. The park is also extremely small with low fences. Essentially, this game will be played in a hitters paradise, and if you’re a fan of stacking a game in Coors, you should be a fan of stacking this game tonight.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Atlanta Braves
The Atlanta Braves have surprisingly featured somewhat of a middle of the road team through 13 games. They currently rank 15th in the MLB in runs scored, 17th in home runs, 12th in team batting average, and 13th in OPS. They play in a relatively hitter friendly stadium, but struggled at home in 2018. Last season, the Braves hit for a .255 average with a .404 slugging percentage and a .730 OPS in Atlanta. They did, however, average 4.8 runs with only 2.9 extra-base hits per game at home. They are -147 favorites in a game set at 10 runs tonight, and they feature the highest implied total on the slate at 5.6 runs.
The Braves get a great matchup against Jason Vargas, who owns a 1-0 record with a 9.00 ERA and a 2.17 WHIP through two games (one starts). He also owns an uninspiring 6.70 xFIP to go along with a 5.83 SIERA. Over his career, Vargas has allowed a 1.2 HR/9, while recording only a 6.2 K/9. Since joining the Mets, though, his HR/9 has jumped to 1.8 and his K/9 has increased to 8.0. He was at his worst against right-handed batters last season, allowing them to hit for a .284 average with a .511 slugging percentage and a .359 wOBA. Vargas also allowed his opponents to hit for a .299/.561/.394 line when pitching on the road in 2018. He continues to struggle when on the mound, and there’s very little reason to believe Atlanta won’t find plenty of success against him tonight. They could feature some chalky players, but they still make a strong stacking option on this slate.
Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor
Peter Alonso
Alsonso has been one of the hottest players in the MLB, hitting .370 with six home runs over only 46 at-bats. He also owns 60% hard-hit and 53% fly ball rates with a 97 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. Furthermore, Alonso enters this game with 0.206 wOBA and 0.38 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching.
Dan Vogelbach
Vogelbach is averaging one home run every six at-bats this season. He gets a tough matchup against Justin Verlander, but features 0.171 wOBA and 0.142 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching. Vogelbach has also posted 47% hard-hit and 56% fly ball rates with a 97 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days.
Hunter Dozier
Dozier is a reverse splits hitter, who possesses 0.031 wOBA and 0.112 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching. He has also been playing well recently, posting 43% hard-hit and 50% fly ball rates with a 94 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. Dozier also owns home runs in two of his last three games.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Homer Bailey
Bailey has struggled through two starts this season, posting an 0-1 record with a 9.00 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP. He owns a 3.59 xFIP and a 3.42 SIERA, though, suggesting he will see major regression throughout his next few starts. Home runs continue to be a weakness of his, as he owns a 2.7 HR/9, but he has found ways to keep that down in his career, and could potentially do so again. Most importantly, he owns an elite 13.5 K/9 this season, which is significantly higher than his career 7.4 K/9. While his new strikeout rate isn’t sustainable, it shows he has more upside than previous seasons. Bailey is a -101 underdog in a game set at 9 runs, and his opponents feature an implied run total of 4.6 runs tonight.
He gets a great matchup against the Cleveland Indians tonight. Cleveland leads the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking last in team wOBA. Bailey has been a slightly better pitcher against right-handed batters throughout his career, holding them to a .266 average with a .420 slugging percentage and a .323 wOBA. He’s far from a solid pitcher, but he makes an interesting option because of an elite matchup, low price tag, and potential regression. Bailey is cheap enough to be considered in cash games, but he’s a much better tournament option tonight.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
J.D. Davis
Davis has found quite a bit of success early this season, hitting .258 with a .516 slugging percentage and an .895 OPS through 10 games. Davis also owns four extra-base hits (two home runs) and four RBIs. Over the last 15 days, he owns a 41% hard-hit rate with a 93 mph exit velocity. Davis also owns ridiculous .313 wOBA and .667 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching this season.
He gets a matchup against Sean Newcomb, who has featured plenty of ups and downs against both left- and right-handed batters throughout his career. Overall, righties have hit .242 with a .371 slugging percentage and a .311 wOBA against him. Davis is expected to hit fourth in the New York Mets lineup tonight, and that will add to his consistency and upside. He’s a cheap enough option to be considered in all leagues. As an added bonus, he was originally posted in my HR Predictor, but I moved him in favor of Dozier, so this is an added home run bonus.
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