Welcome everyone to Ben’s Pitching Preview! This season I will be getting back to my roots and focusing on my top SP options for each slate. After all, a SP Breakdown was my first ever regular article on this site when I started providing content many years ago. Our Core Plays have been great to start the season, you can pick up a package here. Let’s get into it!
Tyler Glasnow and Gerrit Cole
Two aces at the top of a monster slate on Monday, I can’t wait! At first glance, we know these are two of the top arms in the entire MLB. Since the start of the 2020 shortened season, Glasnow is punching out 37% of batters while Cole is right behind him at 34%. Glasnow is someone I was expecting to take a huge leap forward this season, and was my preseason pick for the AL Cy Young award. He has responded with one earned run over his first 12 innings, adding 15 K’s. The main reason for his expected step forward is the addition of a new slider to his repertoire. He already has a dominant fastball and curveball, so the addition of another pitch can further keep guys off-balance and guessing. He’s using that slider over 30% of the time already this season, and the results have been great. He matches up with the Texas Rangers on Monday night, who were just no hit by Joe Musgrove on Friday. As a team, the Rangers projected lineup is at a .299 wOBA with over 27% strikeouts vs righties since the start of 2020…yikes! This is one of the best pitchers in baseball, in arguably the best matchup. He’s the top play on the slate for me.
Cole needs no introduction, but he does draw a tougher matchup. The Toronto Blue Jays do have some strikeouts in their lineup, but they are a much better hitting team and come with a .202 ISO. We know that Cole’s one issue is allowing HR’s, so the matchup is a bit concerning at times. He does own a 34% strikeout rate and a .237 wOBA allowed in over 100 PA vs this Jays team, so it’s not like he can’t dominate. As of Monday morning, I think most people in cash games will look to pair the two together and find some cheap bats. I think that’s a completely fine strategy, and will be awaiting some value to open up when lineups start rolling in this afternoon.
Freddy Peralta
“Fastball” Freddy as I used to call him has really made some strides since the start of the 2020 season. He’s cut his xFIP down from 4.06 to 3.06 and upped his swinging strikes from 13% to 18%. He also has worked on adding more pitches to his pitch mix, and has one of the most electric fastballs in the MLB. He’s already faced this Cubs team once in 2021, resulting in 28 DK points, and the sites have decided to leave him cheap in the same matchup tonight. Dating back to last season I have actively looked to pick on the Cubs with good right-handed pitching, and that will continue this season. Since the start of the 2020 season, this Cubs lineup owns a .318 wOBA with 26% strikeouts vs righty pitching.
GPP Play: Carlos Rodon
My favorite tournament play today is Carlos Rodon, making his second start of the year. He looked like the Rodon of old in his first start, striking out nine Mariners while topping out at 98 mph with his heater. This is a former top prospect, whose career has been derailed by injuries. He looked great in spring training, and carried that over into his first real action of 2021. Everyone knows I’m not a huge BVP guy, but he has owned this Indians team in his career. We have a 78 PA sample size of Rodon vs the Indians, resulting in a 25% strikeout rate for him while allowing just a .273 wOBA. There are two clear top dogs on this slate in Glasnow and Cole, which will leave ownership on Rodon minute on Monday night.
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
