Pitcher
Justin’s Pick: Jake Arrieta
I almost exclusively search for strikeout potential when debating pitchers for fantasy. Jake Arrieta is coming off of a one strikeout performance against the Minnesota Twins, but he needed only 75 pitches to complete 7 innings. He threw 104 pitches in his game before that, suggesting he has the potential to go deep into this game tonight, even if he is finding strikeouts. Through two starts this season, Arrieta owns a 4.8 K/9, but that will increase dramatically, as it sits at 8.7 since joining the National League full time. His 2.77 ERA looks significantly better than his 6.61 xFIP and 6.75 SIERA in 2019, but I don’t fully expect regression to take place in this matchup. Arrieta will face off against the Miami Marlins in one of the most pitcher-friendly stadiums in the MLB. Miami leads the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while ranking third last in team wOBA. Arrieta is currently a -173 favorite in a game set at 8.5 runs, and Miami owns an implied run total of only 3.7 runs. He does come with a small amount of risk, but there’s very little reason to believe he won’t find success in this matchup.
Jason’s Reaction: I like the matchup, but I don’t like Arrieta. He has not looked sharp to start the season, and the numbers suggest he has been awfully lucky. I’ll look elsewhere at the pitcher position on DraftKings tonight, though I do recognize the upside.
Jason’s Pick: Carlos Carrasco
Carlos Carrasco is the most expensive pitching option available tonight, but for good reason. He currently owns a 11.4 SO/9 and a HR/9 under 1. The implied run total for the Kansas City Royals is 3.4, the lowest of any team on the slate. That is probably in part due to the temperature in Kansas City tonight, which will be a lowly 52 degrees with relatively low humidity. That is a difficult environment to hit in. In the last 15 days, Carrasco is throwing 68% of his pitches as strikes, which suggests he has great command early in the season. It shouldn’t take much to convince fantasy owners to roster him, as long as his price tag is not an issue. Roster Carrasco in both cash games and tournaments.
Justin’s Reaction: Carrasco isn’t my favorite option personally, but it makes sense to play him in either cash games or tournaments. No issues with this recommendation other than I see myself going somewhere else.
Infielder
Justin’s Pick: Mitch Moreland
Mitch Moreland has gotten off to a relatively hot start, hitting .275 with a .750 slugging percentage and a 1.106 OPS through his first 13 games. Over that span, he owns nine extra-base hits (five home runs) and 12 RBIs. Moreland has also posted 48% hard hit and fly ball rates with a 94 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He gets a great matchup against David Hess, and Moreland owns 0.05 wOBA and 0.092 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching. More importantly, he’ll be playing in Boston, where he was at his best last season. Moreland posted a .274 average with a .481 slugging percentage, an .827 OPS, and a .207 ISO at home. For comparison, he owned a .214/.383/.685/.168 line in the same categories on the road. He’s expected to hit third in one of the most dangerous lineups in the MLB, and Moreland makes a great option in all leagues on this slate.
Jason’s Reaction: Mitch Moreland does come with quite a bit of upside, and it is always difficult to say no to the three-hole hitter for the Boston Red Sox. If the salary is available, spend it here.
Jason’s Pick: Danny Jansen
Danny Jansen has been extremely unlucky to start the season, and a quick look at some advanced statistics shows how. Before that, it should be noted that Jansen gets a great matchup against the Tampa Bay Rays and Ryne Stanek. He is an opposite splits hitter with a 0.129 ISO differential against right-handed pitching, despite hitting from the right side. Now, over the last 15 days, Jansen has a 32% hard hit rate, which is solid considering his position and price tag. His average batted ball distance is 214 feet, and his exit velocity on those batted balls is 90 MPH. Most importantly, his recent batted ball luck rating is 59. What this means is that his batted ball distance tends to lead to far more fantasy points than Jansen has been accumulating to start the season. He will eventually stop getting unlucky. Jansen makes for a great option at the catcher position until his price tag returns to beginning-of-the-season form.
Justin’s Reaction: I hate catcher tonight, so I understand using this play. I likely won’t be going this route, though, because I hate taking players when the Rays are using a bullpen day. Still, Jansen is cheap, hitting somewhat high in the lineup, and low owned.
Outfielder
Justin’s Pick: Brandon Nimmo
I will continue to play Brandon Nimmo on a nightly basis until his price tag reaches at least $4K. He got off to a slow start this season, as he’s hitting only .150 with a .275 slugging percentage and a .581 OPS through 12 games. With that being said, he has been heating up a bit recently, averaging 11.8 DK points per game over his last four games. His peripherals aren’t overly impressive, as he only owns 38% hard-hit and fly ball rates with a 93 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. With that being said, he also owns a batted ball distance of 226 feet, suggesting he comes with solid power tonight. That’s important, as he gets a matchup against Kyle Wright in a stadium designed for left-handed power hitters. Wright has struggled with the long ball throughout his career, and Nimmo owns 0.064 wOBA and 0.098 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching. Even though he has been cold, he’s a cheap source of a potential home run tonight, and he’s a player that can be considered in all leagues.
Jason’s Reaction: I recommended Nimmo on Jason’s Jacks, and I do think that he has a seriously shot to take one deep tonight. Even if he doesn’t, he makes for a stellar fantasy option.
Jason’s Pick: Brandon Belt
Brandon Belt is a left-handed batter that comes with quite a bit of fantasy potential considering his ability to hit for extra bases. Unfortunately, the San Francisco Giants are not the high-powered offense they once pretended to be, but Belt still has some RBI potential hitting at the top of the order. He should see an extra at-bat, as well. Chad Bettis is not a good pitcher. He is averaging 1.4 HR/9 with only 5.9 SO/9. The Giants are not a team that strikes out frequently regardless, but when the ball is in play, it is obviously better for fantasy point accumulation. Belt comes into this game with a 0.108 and 0.084 ISO and wOBA differential respectively. He also possesses home run potential with an average batted ball distance of 225 feet over the last 15 days, a hard hit rate of 43%, and an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 92 MPH. As an added bonus, Belt can be rostered at the OF or 1B positions on DraftKings.
Justin’s Reaction: I thought you were going to go with Shin-Soo Choo here, so I’m slightly disappointed. This is a solid recommendation, though. Belt will likely go overlooked, and he does come with strong upside.
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