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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Boston Red Sox
The Boston Red Sox have struggled offensively early this season, ranking only 18th in the MLB in runs scored and team batting average, 20th in home runs, and 21st in OPS through 12 games. Boston was a significantly better offense at home last season, where they hit for a .282 average with a .482 slugging percentage and an .829 OPS. The Red Sox also averaged 5.8 runs and 4.1 extra-base hits per game in Boston in 2018. Tonight, they are -176 favorites in a game set at 9.5 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 5.5 runs.
Boston gets a matchup against Aaron Sanchez, who has thrown well through two starts this season. He owns a 1-1 record with a 1.64 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. He also owns a 4.76 xFIP and a 4.49 SIERA, which suggests he has gotten lucky. Those numbers are more in line with the 4.50 ERA he has posted since the start of the 2017 season. He has held his opponents to a 1.0 HR/9 with a 7.2 K/9 over that span, as well, though. Sanchez struggled against left-handed batters in 2018, allowing them to hit for a .285 average with a .470 slugging percentage and a .380 wOBA. He also allowed a 38.6% extra-base hit rate to lefties last season. Boston’s lineup features a few elite right-handed bats, though, adding to the upside of the stack as a whole. If those batters can find success against Sanchez, lefties should also find success. Even with their recent struggles, Boston features the best stacking offense for the smaller slate tonight.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
New York Mets
The New York Mets have found plenty success throughout the 2019 season. Through 11 games, they rank sixth in the MLB in runs scored, 15th in home runs, seventh in team batting average, and 12th in OPS. They were an offense that was significantly better on the road last season, posting a .252 average with a .421 slugging percentage and a .752 OPS. The Mets also averaged 5.0 runs and 3.4 extra-base hits per game on the road. Tonight, they are +113 underdogs in a game set at 9 runs, but they still feature an implied run total of 4.3 runs.
Kevin Gausman will be taking the mound for the Atlanta Braves tonight. He looked elite in his only start this season, holding the Miami Marlins scoreless over seven innings. Gausman owns a career 45-54 record with a 4.09 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP, though. He also has allowed a 1.2 HR/9, while recording an 8.1 K/9 over 161 games (138 starts). Gausman was a reverse splits pitcher last season, allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .281 average with a .459 slugging percentage and a .339 wOBA. He also allowed left-handed batters to hit for a .243/.411/.309 line, though. The Mets have a few powerful left-handed batters, who will see a massive increase in value because of the park factor. Their right-handed batters also see an uptick in value because of the matchup against Gausman.
Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor
Kyle Schwarber
Schwarber has struggled at times this season, but he owns three home runs on only nine hits. He has also posted 44% hard-hit and 37% fly ball rates with a 95 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. Schwarber has been at his best against right-handed pitching, posting 0.028 wOBA and 0.134 ISO differentials against righties.
Brandon Belt
Belt isn’t known as a powerful player, but he enters this game with 0.08 wOBA and 0.105 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching. He has also caught fire recently, posting 46% hard-hit and 53% fly ball rates with a 92 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. Belt also owns three home runs this season.
Anthony Rizzo
Rizzo is another Chicago Cubs player, who owns great peripherals over the last 15 days. Over that span, he features 50% hard-hit and 46% fly ball rates with a 94 mph exit velocity. He has also performed well against right-handed pitching, bringing 0.089 wOBA and 0.91 ISO differentials against righties.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Jeff Samardzija
Samardzija has looked decent this season, recording a 2.79 ERA with a 1.45 WHIP through two starts. He hasn’t thrown deep into either game, though, while posting only a 5.6 K/9, which has limited hit upside. Still, his career 8.1 K/9 suggests that he has more upside than most remember from his last injury-riddled season. Samardzija hasn’t truly been a good fantasy option since 2017, and people will forget the upside he possesses when he is a healthy pitcher. Tonight, he’s a -102 underdog in a game set at only 7 runs, and his opponents feature an implied run total of only 3.6 runs.
Samardzija gets a great matchup against the Colorado Rockies tonight, and they lead the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking second last in team wOBA. Most importantly, they will be traveling to one of the most pitcher friendly stadiums in the MLB, adding to the value of the pitchers in this game. Samardzija has been a better option against right-handed batters throughout his career, holding them to a .241 average with a .374 slugging percentage and a .296 wOBA. He has the potential to slow down the Rockies lineup in San Francisco, and he should come with plenty of strikeout opportunities in this game. Samardzija likely isn’t safe enough for cash games, but he’s a solid tournament option tonight.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Brandon Nimmo
Nimmo has gotten out to an ice cold start this season, hitting only .167 with a .306 slugging percentage and a .624 OPS through 11 games. He has been heating up recently, though, as he has totaled 43 DK points in his last three games. While his numbers don’t pop off the page, he also owns significantly better peripherals, entering this game with 37% hard-hit and 43% fly ball rates with a 95 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. Nimmo has also been at his best against right-handed pitching, as he owns 0.07 wOBA and 0.101 ISO differentials against righties.
He gets a matchup against Kevin Gausman, who I outlined above. While Gausman is a reverse splits pitcher, he’ll be throwing in a stadium that has been designed for powerful left-handed batters. Nimmo is leading off for the Mets, and it’s only a matter of time before the ball starts falling more for him. I’m expecting him to keep up with his recent three game hot streak, and his price tag won’t be this low for long.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
