Welcome everyone to Ben’s Pitching Preview! This season I will be getting back to my roots and focusing on my top SP options for each slate. After all, a SP Breakdown was my first ever regular article on this site when I started providing content many years ago. If you would like to support further and pick up a Core plays subscription, you can do so here. Let’s get into it!
Julio Urias
Urias is the most expensive pitcher tonight vs the Nationals, and I think that could end up lowering his ownership. Urias is someone that is still young even though he’s been around for almost five seasons, and is a player we expect to take a leap forward in 2021. I was encouraged by seeing him go seven innings in his first start, and that came with almost 14% swinging strikes. Overall, this Nationals lineup isn’t bad vs left-handed pitching…but, Urias is right there with Ian Anderson for highest raw strikeout upside on the slate. He still comes with a pitch count concern, which makes him a better buy in tournaments at this price tag.
Chris Paddack
This is a tricky spot, but I expect Paddack to be the highest-owned pitcher on both sites tonight against the Rangers. On one hand, this Rangers lineup is not good and striking out 25% of the time since the start of 2020. On the other hand, Paddack’s Achilles heel has been left-handed batters, and they have packed six of them into the lineup against him tonight. I’m still a believer in Paddack long term, and it makes sense why the ownership settles on him on Saturday night. I think he is the correct cash game play, but can be faded in tournaments for leverage.
Jeff Hoffman
Hoffman is an interesting SP2 at only $6,900 on DraftKings tonight. I’m always interested in guys joining the Reds due to their involvement with Driveline Bases and it’s almost a lock that they will maximize what they can get out of every arm on the roster. We know that Hoffman was once a highly touted prospect, but had to pitch in Coors Field the last two seasons. We can’t draw any conclusions from one game, but he did generate 15% swinging strikes in his first start for the Reds, a huge jump from the last few seasons. This DBacks lineup isn’t as bad as some make it out to be, but they are without their best hitter in Ketel Marte. Since the start of the 2020 shortened season, this lineup has just a .279 wOBA vs right-handed pitching.
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
