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Pitcher
Justin’s Pick: Robbie Ray
Robbie Ray is one of the elite strikeout pitchers in the MLB. Since the start of the 2017 season, he has posted a 12.0 K/9, while his ERA sits at 3.38. He has also posted a swinging strike percentage of 14.2% and 12.8% in 2017 and 2018, respectively. His fastball velocity is down a bit this season, but he’s throwing nearly 5% more sinkers from last season, which could be part of that reason. Overall, Ray has struggled a bit in two starts, but he has also flashed his elite strikeout upside, needing only five innings to strikeout nine batters against the Los Angeles Dodgers. He gets a significantly better matchup against the Texas Rangers tonight, and they are a team that is extremely vulnerable on the road. Texas also leads the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, adding to Ray’s upside. He isn’t necessarily safe, but he could be in line for a double-digit strikeout performance tonight. Keep in mind, he’s also a -137 favorite in a game set at 8 runs, meaning the Rangers feature an implied run total of only 3.7 runs tonight.
Jason’s Reaction: I absolutely love Ray’s upside tonight against the Texas Rangers, but it should be noted that the Rangers are much better team against left-handed pitching. That could be a factor tonight, and it adds to the risk that Ray possesses. That said, the upside remains. He is a great tournament option.
Jason’s Pick: Noah Syndergaard
It seems that tonight all the best pitching options are also tied to rather poor matchups. As noted above, Robbie Ray could struggle against a Texas Rangers’ squad that hits much better against left-handed pitching, while Collin McHugh could struggle against a New York Yankees’ squad that hits much better against right-handed pitching and away from home (currently), and James Paxton gets a rough matchup against a Houston Astros’ squad that rarely strikes out. Insert Noah Syndergaard. Thor looked stale in his debut against the Washington Nationals, but he bounced back in his second start of the season against the same team. His strikeout pitches are working, and he has a line drive rate of under 10%. His ground ball rate is over 50%, which suggests that batters are not seeing the ball all that well against him. The Minnesota Twins strikeout 0.24 times per at-bat. Despite that, the Twins are a solid offensive team, but Thor should be able to continue to induce ground balls and strikeouts, and if provided even a little bit of run support, he should pick up a win bonus, as well.
Justin’s Reaction: At this moment, I’d likely lean Noah Syndergaard in cash games and Robbie Ray in tournaments. That may change throughout the day, but I simply don’t believe we’ll be able to play both with how tight DraftKings has been pricing their players, although we do have a $2K Chris Davis tonight. But for now, Syndergaard in cash and Ray in tournaments.
Infielder
Justin’s Pick: Whit Merrifield
Whit Merrifield is an elite player and an elite fantasy option tonight. Through 10 games, he’s hitting .349 with a .558 slugging percentage and a .936 OPS. He also owns five extra-base hits, four RBIs, and three steals as the Kansas City Royals leadoff hitter. Merrifield has posted a 48% hard-hit rate with a 95 mph exit velocity over that span, as well. Tonight, he gets a great matchup against Yusei Kikuchi, who is allowing right-handed batters to hit for an average of .269 with a .442 slugging percentage and a .315 wOBA through his three-game MLB career. Kikuchi will also be throwing on the road, where his splits have worsened, although in limited innings. Merrifield, on the other hand, is at his best against left-handed pitching, bringing 0.067 wOBA and 0.089 ISO differentials against lefties into this game. As I mentioned above, he’s leading off for Kansas City, and he’s an elite option in all formats on this slate.
Jason’s Reaction: Merrifield is very expensive, and it may be difficult to roster him on a slate without many great lower priced pitching options, but if the salary cap is available, roster him.
Jason’s Pick: Travis Shaw
I recommended Travis Shaw last night in my new article (shameless plug time) Jason’s Jacks. Unfortunately, he did not hit a home run. However, I’ll be going back to the well with Shaw in tournaments on DraftKings tonight. Shaw gets a great matchup against Felix Pena, who is currently sporting a 5.40 ERA, and with a 0.192 ISO differential against right-handed pitching, Shaw is back on the home run radar. He is hitting 0.066 HR/AB, and with an average exit velocity of 94 MPH on batted balls, along with an average distance of 209 feet, it would not be shocking to finally see Shaw breakout tonight. He has a great hard hit rate of 43%, but his ground ball rate is over 50%, which may be an indicator that he is getting unlucky. In the four spot, Shaw also has ample opportunity for RBIs. His upside is tremendous for a very moderate price tag.
Justin’s Reaction: I like Shaw for a potential home run tonight, as well. It’s only a matter of time before it comes with his current numbers. Love him in tournaments.
Outfielder
Justin’s Pick: Brandon Nimmo
Brandon Nimmo has gotten off to an awful start this season, which has dropped his price tag significantly. He’s hitting only .152 with a .303 slugging percentage and a .603 OPS through 10 games. With that being said, he finally broke out last night, hitting a double and a home run on his way to 23 DK points. His peripherals suggest he has gotten unlucky early this season, posting 40% hard-hit and 46% fly ball rates with a 95 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. He also owns a 244-foot batted ball distance over that span. He gets a plus matchup against Jake Odorizzi at home, and Nimmo enters this game with 0.078 wOBA and 0.101 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching. He makes a great option in all leagues tonight.
Jason’s Reaction: This reasoning is almost exactly the same as mine with Calhoun. Nimmo makes for a great value option tonight based on a salary decrease and solid advanced statistics.
Jason’s Pick: Kole Calhoun
Kole Calhoun possesses tremendous value tonight against the Milwaukee Brewers. He left Saturday’s game with an injury to his knee, but as expected, he is set to return quickly. After multiple days of a $3.9K salary, Calhoun dropped to $3.4K, but this is baseball, not basketball. It is extremely difficult to project with any certainty what a specific hitter is going to do on a specific day. That is why stacking is so important. That said, Calhoun should remain closer to the $4.0K mark, and DraftKings is being a bit too hasty on his price tag. He is leading off tonight, and he also possesses a great 0.108 ISO differential. His exit velocity on batted balls is 96 MPH, and his average distance is 225 feet. Unfortunately, his line drive rate is under 10%, but his hard hit rate is over 40%, as well as his fly ball rate. That bodes well for potential home runs. Always target batters that drop significantly in price at the beginning of the season, especially if their advanced statistics show that they are still hitting the ball hard.
Justin’s Reaction: As I mentioned above, it has been difficult to find value early in the season on DraftKings, but that is seemingly changing today. Calhoun is a strong option in tournaments for a low price tag, while I’d likely move up to Brandon Nimmo in cash games. I suppose both could be used if you’re in a tight spot, though.
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