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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Seattle Mariners
The Seattle Mariners have featured the best offense in the MLB early this season, leading the league in runs scored, home runs, team batting average, and OPS. They were a significantly better offense away from home last season, where they posted a .265 average with a .423 slugging percentage and a .749 OPS. They also averaged 4.7 runs and 3.1 extra-base hits per game on the road in 2018. The Mariners are -148 favorites in a game set at 10 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 5.6 runs.
Seattle gets a great matchup against Heath Fillmyer, who will be making his season debut tonight. He struggled in 17 games (13 starts) in 2018, recording a 4-2 record with a 4.26 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP. He also allowed a 1.2 HR/9, while recording only a 6.2 K/9 over 82.1 innings. Fillmyer owns an xFIP north of 5.00 over his time in Triple-A and MLB, suggesting he’ll continue to struggle throughout his career. He struggled more against right-handed pitching in 2018, allowing righties to hit for a .282 average with a .479 slugging percentage and a .345 wOBA. Surprisingly, he threw well at home last season, but I’m fully expecting regression from that. The Mariners feature an elite offense, and should have no problems finding success against a player that has struggled through Triple-A and the MLB. It’s finally time people start playing Seattle, and their ownerships will increase on this slate tonight.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Oakland A’s
Once again the Oakland A’s find themselves as our “Vegas Stack.” They have featured plenty of ups and downs early in the 2019 season, ranking fourth in the MLB in runs scored, fifth in home runs, 14th in team batting average, and 18th in OPS. In 2018, they were a significantly better team on the road, where they owned a .262 average with a .464 slugging percentage and a .795 OPS. They also averaged 5.5 runs and 3.7 extra-base hits per game away from home. Oakland is currently a -177 favorites in a game set at 9.5 runs, and they feature an implied run total of 5.5 runs tonight.
The A’s get a matchup against Dan Straily, who gave up five earned runs (two home runs) over only 1.1 inning against the New York Yankees. He has been struggling since 2017, posting a 15-15 record with a 4.33 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP over 57 games (56 starts). He also allowed a 1.6 HR/9, while recording a 7.9 K/9 over his last 305.1 innings. Straily found very little success against left-handed batters last season, allowing them to hit for a .262 average with a .460 slugging percentage and a .360 wOBA. He also allowed a 41.9% extra-base hit rate to left-handed batters last season. While he struggled last season against lefties, he has struggled a bit more against right-handed batters throughout his career. Oakland is a high upside stacking option, and they’ll continue to be popular tonight.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pittsburgh Pirates have struggled through nine games this season, ranking 28th in the MLB in runs scored, 29th in home runs, and 17th in team batting average and OPS. The Pirates were a significantly better option on the road last season, where they own a .250 average with a .413 slugging percentage and a .723 OPS. They also averaged 4.5 runs and 3.2 extra-base hits per game on the road. Tonight, the Pirates are +157 underdogs in a game set at only 7.5 runs. They own an implied run total of only 3.3 runs tonight.
Yu Darvish will be taking the mound for the Chicago Cubs tonight. He has been dealing with injuries since joining the Cubs, and he has struggled through his first 10 starts. In those games, he owns a 1-4 record with a 5.40 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP. He has also allowed a 1.5 HR/9, while posting a 10.6 K/9 over 46.2 innings. Last season, Darvish struggled against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .273 average with a .474 slugging percentage and a .366 wOBA. Those struggles have continued through two games in the 2019 season, as well. Pittsburgh will utilize five left-handed batters in their lineup tonight, and they come with quite a bit of upside in this matchup. Keep in mind, Darvish will also be one of the highest owned pitchers on the slate, adding to the leverage of this stack in tournaments.
Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor
Travis Shaw
Shaw continues with his early season struggles, but his home run is coming. He owns 43% hard-hit and 39% fly ball rates with a 94 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. He also owns 0.088 wOBA and 0.192 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching. Shaw gets a plus matchup against Felix Pena tonight, as well.
Joc Pederson
Pederson is another player I’m waiting on for his breakout home run. He enters this game with 0.187 wOBA and 0.177 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching, and he gets a plus matchup tonight. Pederson has also looked outstanding with 51% hard-hit and 48% fly ball rates with a 98 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days.
Dan Vogelbach
Vogelbach has posted 53% hard-hit and 60% fly ball rates with a 98 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. He also owns five home runs over his last five games. Vogelbach is a powerful player, who enters this game with 0.193 wOBA and 0.173 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching, and he could continue his hot streak tonight.
Rhys Hoskins
Hoskins has always displayed more power at home, where he owns 61.4% of his career home runs. He has also been better against right-handed pitching, posting 0.07 wOBA and 0.194 ISO differentials against righties. Furthermore, Hoskins has posted 40% hard-hit and 56% fly ball rates over the last 15 days.
Christian Walker
Walker owns elite peripherals, recording 72% hard-hit and 36% fly ball rates with a 97 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. He also enters this game with 0.184 wOBA and 0.104 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching. Walker also owns three home runs early this season, although he has yet to hit one in Arizona.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Jake Odorizzi
Odorizzi’s numbers this season are a bit skewed by one bad game. He scored -7.5 DK points in his last start against the Philadelphia Phillies, but posted 31.7 DK points in his season opener against the Cleveland Indians. Since becoming a full time pitcher in the MLB, Odorizzi owns a 47-47 record with a 3.97 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. He has also held his opponents to a 1.3 HR/9, while recording an 8.5 K/9. Tonight, Odorizzi is a +169 underdog in a game set at 7 runs, and his opponents own an implied run total of 4.1 runs.
He gets a matchup against the New York Mets, who rank fifth on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, although they lead the slate in team wOBA. Odorizzi has been a reverse splits pitcher throughout his career, holding left-handed batters to a .219 average with a .382 slugging percentage and a .289 wOBA. Right-handed batters also hit for a .246/.438/.328 line since Odorizzi joined the Majors. He comes with quite a bit of risk, but he also comes with tremendous upside for a low price tag. Odorizzi makes an outstanding tournament option tonight.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Tommy La Stella
La Stella has caught fire recently, scoring 32 and 18 DK points in his last two games. Overall, he owns three hits (three home runs), six RBIs, and three runs in those contests. La Stella has also scored fantasy points in six of his last seven contests. He owns 37% hard-hit and 50% fly ball rates with a 93 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. He also enters this game with 0.067 wOBA and 0.113 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching.
La Stella gets a plus matchup against Brandon Woodruff, who owns a 1-0 record with a 6.00 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP through two starts. He has struggled against left-handed batters throughout his MLB career, allowing them to hit for a .298 average with a .421 slugging percentage and a .344 wOBA. La Stella is expected to shift into the two hole for the Los Angeles Angels, who will be without Mike Trout tonight. His price tag, recent hot streak, and new spot in the lineup make him the perfect option in all formats on the slate tonight.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
