Welcome everyone to Ben’s Pitching Preview! This season I will be getting back to my roots and focusing on my top SP options for each slate. After all, a SP Breakdown was my first ever regular article on this site when I started providing content many years ago. If you would like to support further and pick up a Core Plays subscription, you can do so here. Let’s get into it!
Yu Darvish
I have to start off by highlighting our good friend Yu Darvish. He may come in somewhat lower-owned on DraftKings due to him being the most expensive pitcher. For those that don’t remember, Darvish has essentially been one of, if not the premier pitcher in the MLB since the All-Star break two seasons ago. When puling data from July 2019 through today, he has the second-lowest SIERA on this slate at 2.81 with over 33% strikeouts and only 3.3% walks. Cutting down on walks and improving control was a huge step forward Darvish took to close out 2019, and those changes held strong in the abbreviated season last summer. Given that it’s the first slate of the season, nothing about the matchup stands out other than how dominant Darvish is, and is expected to be. Arizona is projected to send six lefties to the plate, and Darvish does see his strikeouts drop in opposite hand matchups, but I think he is a strong tournament play on Thursday especially with soft pricing up and down both sites.
Tyler Glasnow
I will likely settle in the mid-tier for my main lineup on DraftKings, and that starts with one of our favorites at only $8,800 against the Miami Marlins. On a slate where we have aces up and down the board, it’s hard to ignore just how nasty Glasnow is. He’s struck out 40% of batters over his last 70 innings pitcher and is ready to debut a new slider that could elevate his game to new places. Pitch counts are an obvious factor we have to bake in these first few weeks, and the Rays have been known to keep Glasnow on a short leash as it is. That being said, we have seen him carve teams up in short outings his whole career and on a site like DK, strikeouts are the number one thing we care about. The projected Marlins lineup features seven right-handed batters. Glasnow has struck out 30% of righties he’s faced over his career. He will be one of the highest-owned pitchers on Opening Day and is a good starting point for cash games.
Kyle Hendricks
I can’t believe it’s Opening Day and I’m writing up one of my least favorite DFS players in Kyle Hendricks, but here we are. Anyone that has followed me over the years knows that I love strikeouts, especially in DFS, and I like to bake natural upside into my builds even if I’m playing cash games. While he is great in real-life, Hendricks is not typically a high-upside DFS play due to this inability to strike guys out. That being said, Opening Day is a different beast and we have already established that most of these guys will have unknown, or lower than normal pitch counts heading into these games. Weather is an extremely important factor in MLB DFS, and something that new players can be slow to adjust to. We have projected temperatures in the mid-30’s at first pitch in Wrigley tomorrow with 15 MPH winds blowing in. Wind blowing in is already a bump to pitchers, but it’s even more so in this ballpark. Hendricks also gets to match up with one of the worst offenses on this slate in the Pittsburgh Pirates. Sometimes we have to do things we don’t like in DFS, and rostering Kyle Hendricks on Opening Day is one of them.
GPP Dart: Chad Kuhl
I’ve always had a soft spot for Chad Kuhl, but it’s also hilarious to see him starting Opening Day for a real-life MLB team. I do think he’s worth a dart in that same cold weather game as Hendricks, as we could see little runs scored thanks to the weather. He has a good slider, and actually has a higher strikeout rate career-wise vs left-handed batters than righties, which is good as the Cubs will likely have six left-handed batters in the lineup. He allows over a full HR/9 in his career, but the wind blowing in should assist his issue with allowing HR’s. The Cubs also were not a great offense the last time we saw them play, and struck out at a top-ten rate as a team vs right-handed pitching in 2020. This is a true dart on DraftKings as Kuhl is one of the worst pitchers on the slate, but he will allow you to fit in any stack you want in tournaments and has the weather on his side.
Note: On FanDuel, we have a few extra games including the Indians/Tigers so Shane Bieber will be a priority in cash games.
My Stack Rankings
- Dodgers
- Padres
- Braves
- Royals (GPP)
- Orioles (GPP)
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
