Pitchers
Cash Games
Caleb Smith- This is a very weird and tough pitching slate, as you can tell, because I’m writing up way more guys than I normally see fit. That reason being that I think all of these guys are honestly in play, and this is the perfect night to run multiple tournament teams and get exposure to almost all of them. Smith is a guy that I was high on last season, as he put up a 27.0% strikeout rate in his first 70 or so major league innings. He does has some control concerns, but the Mets don’t have very many patient hitters and they struck out at a top-three rate against southpaws in 2018. Smith leans more towards fly balls, which won’t hurt him in his pitcher-friendly home park.
Matt Strahm (FanDuel)- Smith is probably my favorite pitcher on DraftKings when taking price into account, and that title belongs to Mr. Strahm on FanDuel. Strahm is one of many pitchers tonight who we don’t exactly know how long they will end up pitching, he was in the bullpen last year and while they planned on him being in the rotation this season we don’t exactly know how stretched out he really is. He has good strikeout stuff backed by well above-average swing and miss ability, so the upside is clearly there — especially in a matchup against the Diamondbacks who struck out 23.0% of the time against LHP last season with Paul Goldschmidt still on the team. Even if he only went five innings, he is too cheap on FanDuel and this is definitely a slate where saving at SP and loading up on bats is a great strategy.
Steven Matz- Matz profiles as the “safe” option to me on this slate, which is funny because I’m not a huge Matz fan at all. I am a fan of the matchup with the Miami Marlins, and Matz was really good over the second-half of last season. His strikeouts jumped nearly 4% to 27.0% after the All-Star break last season and the Marlins feature one of the worst lineups in all of baseball this season despite not having many high strikeout bats. Regardless, for the price Matz appears pretty safe in a pitcher-friendly park and while I think he is viable in all formats tonight…safe is not really my personal brand.
Ryan Yarbrough- Yarbrough is expected to the long man out of the bullpen for the Rays tonight after Ryne Stanek opens, and he is priced at just $6,000 on DraftKings. Yarbrough is an average pitcher, with average strikeout ability, but he will be pitching in the friendly confides of Tropicana Field and the Colorado Rockies are a below-average offense on the road outside of Trevor Story and Nolan Arenado. I don’t have any interest in him on FanDuel, but if you want to take the extreme savings and hope for five or so innings with run prevention from him on DK, I can see it in all formats as a way to jam in allllllll the bats.
GPP
Julio Urias- Urias falls into a really interesting spot tonight, he probably has the highest strikeout upside on the slate against the San Francisco Giants, but he also may have the shortest leash and I only see him pitching around 4 innings. That’s not going to stop people from rostering him however, and I expect him to be possibly the highest-owned pitcher on the slate — which means I will most likely come in well underweight. Urias was one of the top prospects in all of baseball before a shoulder injury shut him down in the summer of 2017, and we really haven’t seen much of him since then so we know that the Dodgers will be overly cautious with the young hurler. I love him in GPPs, but if he ends up being chalky I will be underweight, which is definitely scary since he could easily rack up 6 strikeouts in 4 innings.
Brad Peacock- Peacock is another guy who probably won’t be over-extended tonight after spending 2018 in the bullpen, but not to the extent of Urias. Peacock is another guy with massive strikeout upside, he was well over a 30.0% K% out of the pen last season, and he was above 25.0% in 2017 when he made quite a few starts — all backed by a near 12.0% swing and miss rate. The reason I have him tagged as GPP-only is the matchup with the Rangers. They have been seeing the ball extremely well as an offense to start the season, and Peacock is much better against righties than lefties. There definitely tons of strikeouts in this Rangers lineup, but with the power threats of Joey Gallo, Nomar Mazara and Rougned Odor looming from the left side of the plate, it profiles more as a boom or bust matchup for me.
Sean Reid-Foley- If I had seen more of SRF last season he would probably be tagged as cash game playable given his elite matchup with the lowly Baltimore Orioles. The problem is, we just don’t really know who he is. The strikeouts seem to be legitimate with solid minors numbers and good swing and miss ability, but the control also appears to be sketchy and the Orioles will be able to pack enough lefties (albeit bad ones) into the lineup to make me think twice. All-in-all, this is probably the best matchup on the board and he has strikeout stuff, I just don’t want to trust someone in cash games I haven’t seen more than 40 major league innings of — I could change my mind on him though depending how roster construction plays out.
Note: David Price is the closest thing we have to an ace on this slate, and while I don’t think he is a bad play, I’m unlikely to target him on this specific slate given that I think it’s a day to save as much as you can on SP and load up on bats.
Building Blocks
Alex Bregman- Bregman kicks off my building blocks section today against the left-handed fly-baller Drew Smyly. Bregman was arguably the best hitter on the Astros last season against southpaws, sporting a .369 xwOBA and striking out just under 12.0% of the time. The Astros will be one of the highest-owned offenses on the slate in a positive hitting environment in Texas, and if I could only pick one, Breggy gets the nod for me.
Justin Smoak- The Blue Jays will be the top team to battle the Astros in terms of ownership, and it makes sense as they line up against David Hess and the Baltimore Orioles bullpen. Hess only lasted two innings against the Yankees on Opening Day, so we can’t expect him to longer than two or three tonight. Smoak sports a .335 xwOBA to go along with a 41.5% hard hit percentage, and is a staple in my cash game builds at first base tonight providing both a floor and a ceiling.
Kike Hernandez- We should get Hernandez leading off tonight against the left-handed Drew Pomeranz, and he is more than affordable at $4,000 on DraftKings and $3,300 on FanDuel. Hernandez has strong on-base skills with a 10.0% walk rate and under 17.0% strikeouts against southpaws in 2018, and he couples that with a .334 xwOBA and decent pop. If he is in fact leading off, he will be tough to ignore — along with his teammate Justin Turner at 3B.
Cheap Cash Plays: Kole Calhoun, Billy McKinney, Omar Narvaez (DK)
Stacks
1. Los Angeles Angels- It makes me sad, but Felix Hernandez is a shell of his former self, which leads me to the Angels as my top tournament stack tonight. He struck out just 18.3% of batters last season, and while he does give up some hard contact, his saving grace is his ground ball ability (47.0%). We need guys that can get the ball up in the air against him tonight, and all three of Mike Trout, Kole Calhoun and Justin Bour bring that ability. With Hernandez’s low strikeouts, we should see plenty of balls in play tonight and I won’t be shocked if a few of them leave the yard.
2. Seattle Mariners- The Mariners offense has come out on fire to start 2019, but I expect them to go overlooked once again tonight despite the matchup with Chris Stratton. Stratton gives up a lot of hard-contact with minimal strikeout ability, which should play well with some of the sneaky power the Mariners lineup contains. Edwin Encarnacion, Mitch Haniger, Domingo Santana and the uber-cheap Jay Bruce all have pop, and you can also fill-in with some speed like Mallex Smith.
3. San Diego Padres- Merrill Kelly is a 30 year old rookie coming over from a few years in Korea, and he just doesn’t have enough strikeout ability to scare me off the low-owned Padres tonight. It’s not a great hitting environment, but we know balls will be in play and the Padres have enough power to pop off in almost any matchup this season. Manny Machado leads the way for me as an elite GPP play, and Wil Myers, Tatis Jr and either of Franmil Reyes or Franchy Cordero are not far behind.
Chalk Stacks: Astros, Blue Jays
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
