Pitcher
Justin’s Pick: Matt Strahm
I can’t believe I’m writing up Matt Strahm when he’s the second most expensive pitcher on a slate, but it’s 2019, and anything can happen. Unfortunately, he gets a matchup against the Arizona Diamondbacks, who rank third last on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, but they also rank fourth last in team wOBA. In his somewhat short MLB career, Strahm has posted a 10.4 K/9, suggesting he can move beyond the contact of Arizona’s lineup. He also posted an 11.3 K/9 through 20 Spring innings. Furthermore, Strahm will be playing in an extremely pitcher friendly stadium tonight. He’s a -156 favorite in a game set at 7.5 runs, giving the Diamondbacks the second lowest implied total on the slate at 3.4 runs.
Jason’s Reaction: Price tag aside, Strahm is set up for success tonight. It is a little discouraging to pay so much for someone so uncertain, though.
Jason’s Pick: Julio Urias
The San Francisco Giants are currently in the bottom-five in batting average at .177 as a team and tied for last in runs scored at five over four games. Tonight, they travel into Los Angeles to face off against Julio Urias and the Dodgers, and it should continue to be pretty ugly for their offense. Urias K/9 has been fluctuating quite frequently over the last couple of years, and it’ll be interesting to see where exactly it lands after he progresses through some quality starts. More importantly, the Giants can’t hit, and so Urias should not allow too many, if any, runs. Urias is a lefty, and the Giants’ team is filled with left-handed batters, which does not bode well for them. Even against a left-handed pitcher two games ago, they were forced to start four left-handed batters, which also meant a lineup without Brandon Crawford, one of their best power hitters. Urias price tag is moderate, and he is in a great spot to post outstanding numbers. Roster him in both cash games and tournaments.
Justin’s Reaction: Woah! You’re recommending against the Giants tonight? I didn’t see that coming. Count me in. Urias is probably the best pitcher on the board.
Infielder
Justin’s Pick: Kike Hernandez
For some reason, Kike Hernandez is strictly second base eligible on DraftKings, but that makes him a top infielder tonight. He gets a plus matchup against Drew Pomeranz, and he has found plenty of success against left-handed pitching throughout his career. Overall, he owns a .267 average with a .492 slugging percentage and a .360 wOBA against lefties. For comparison, he owns a .223/.385/.293 career line against right-handed pitching. Hernandez is also expected to lead off for the Los Angeles Dodgers, who own one of the best lineups in the MLB. He’s a player that can be considered in all leagues for his current price tag.
Jason’s Reaction: This recommendation is super similar to the reasons why I like Ian Kinsler tonight, so obviously, I’m on board here.
Jason’s Pick: Ian Kinsler
Ian Kinsler, despite being a right-handed batter, hits right-handed pitching much better than left-handed pitching. He is leading off for the San Diego Padres this season, and gets a good matchup against Merrill Kelly and the Arizona Diamondbacks. At the leadoff spot, he should see an additional at-bat that other second basemen options will not, which increases his upside. Last season, all but one of his home runs came against right-handed pitching, and he has a great 0.9 ISO differential, as well as a 0.097 wOBA differential. In 11 at-bats this season, he already has 1 extra base hit and 1 RBI. Kinsler has always been a doubles hitter, but he also has home run potential tonight, even in San Diego. Unfortunately, he will not get the stadium boost from hitting in Arizona, but he is still one of the highest upside 2B options available. He makes for a great tournament option.
Justin’s Reaction: I agree here. Kinsler is a strong option.
Outfielder
Justin’s Pick: Domingo Santana
Domingo Santana is coming off of a solid 2018 season (although limited action), but he finds himself in a new role on a new team. He’s hitting third for the Seattle Mariners, and he gets a plus matchup against Chris Stratton tonight. Santana has been a reverse splits hitter, posting 0.167 wOBA and 0.1 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching. That has continued this season, as well, as he’s hitting .350 with three home runs against righties early in the season. Unfortunately, he’ll be playing in a pitcher-friendly stadium, but that isn’t enough to make me overlook this matchup. Santana makes an extremely high upside option, and he’s a strong tournament play tonight.
Jason’s Reaction: In tournaments, sign me up! Santana doesn’t even come with a super high price tag, either.
Jason’s Pick: Cedric Mullins
Cedric Mullins is expected to leadoff tonight for the Baltimore Orioles against Sean Reid-Foley and the Toronto Blue Jays. While Rogers Centre is not a great stadium for run-scoring overall, it did land in the top-10 for home runs and doubles last season. In his short career, all of Mullins home runs have come against right-handed pitching while he is batting from the left side, and that is exactly what he will be facing and doing tonight. He has the third highest ISO differential of all projected starting outfielders tonight at 0.162. On top of his power, Mullins also has stolen base potential, which adds to his overall upside. While the Orioles probably will not do much scoring, which makes Reid-Foley an interesting option at the pitcher position, Mullins has the potential to score well over value at his current price tag. He is in a good spot in the lineup, gets a good splits matchup, and has both power and speed. It doesn’t get much better for tournaments.
Justin’s Reaction: I can’t really get behind the Baltimore Orioles, but Mullins is an interesting option. I understand it, but I’m not sure I’ll be going this route.
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