Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
New York Yankees
It’s early in the season, but this is a “Chalk Stack” that we need to get used to. They featured one of the best offenses in the MLB in 2018, ranking second in the league in runs scored and OPS, first in home runs, and 16th in team batting average. They were also significantly better at home, where they posted a .260 average with a .474 slugging percentage and an .819 OPS. The Yankees also averaged 5.6 runs and 3.4 extra-base hits per game in New York. Today, they are -384 favorites in a game set at 8.5 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 5.8 runs.
New York gets a great matchup against Nate Karns, who didn’t throw a single pitch in the MLB in 2018. He threw in seven games (one starts) in Spring Training, posting an 0-1 record with a 3.00 ERA. He has also struggled throughout his career against right-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .252 average with a .462 slugging percentage and a .332 wOBA. Karns is likely going to serve as the “starter,” but this game should truly be a bullpen game for the Baltimore Orioles. They don’t have a bullpen that can slow New York down, though, and there should be plenty of runs scores, regardless of who is on the mound.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Chicago Cubs
The Chicago Cubs offense wasn’t as strong as many people were expecting in 2018, but they still ranked seventh in the MLB in runs scored, 22nd in home runs, fourth in team batting average, and 10th in OPS. They simply lacked power. With that being said, they hit .255 with a .406 slugging percentage and a .735 OPS on the road last season. The Cubs also averaged 4.6 runs and 3.1 extra-base hits away from Chicago in 2018. They will be playing in a hitter friendly stadium today, and they are -146 favorites in a game set at 9 runs. They own an implied run total of 5.0 runs.
The Cubs get a matchup against Edinson Volquez, who was out of the MLB in 2018. He saw somewhat of limited innings in 2017, but he has struggled against both left- and right-handed batters throughout his career. Overall, he’s allowing left-handed batters to hit for a .255 average with a .406 slugging percentage and a .333 wOBA, while righties hit for a .247/.394/.324 line against him. He did not show well in Spring Training, posting a 1-2 record with a 6.75 ERA through 13.1 innings, and I expect him to continue to struggle this season. Chicago features a high upside offense, and that should be on full display in this matchup.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Texas Rangers
The Texas Rangers offense featured plenty of ups and downs last season, ranking 14th in the MLB in runs scored, 12th in home runs, 23rd in team batting average, and 19th in OPS. They were significantly better at home, though, where they hit for a .256 average with a .438 slugging percentage and a .778 OPS. Texas also averaged 5.3 runs and 3.2 extra-base hits per game at home in 2018. They are +135 underdogs, which could help them go overlooked tonight, but the game is set at 9 runs. They still feature an implied run total of 4.1 runs.
Texas gets a matchup against Yu Darvish, who only threw in eight games last season. In those games, he posted a 1-3 record with a 4.95 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP. He also allowed a 1.6 HR/9, while recording an 11.0 K/9 over 40 innings. He struggled significantly more against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .273 average with a .474 slugging percentage and a .366 wOBA. Darvish always has the potential to return to elite form, which is what adds risk to this stack, but he could struggle to perform in a hitter friendly stadium in his first start of the season. He showed well in Spring Training, but there’s simply too much that could go wrong for Darvish to not consider the Texas Rangers at home tonight.
Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor
Rowdy Tellez
Tellez saw limited at-bats last season, but he posted a .400 average with an .800 slugging percentage against right-handed pitching. He also recorded 12 of his 13 extra-base hits against righties. Furthermore, Tellez enters this game with 0.329 wOBA and 0.337 ISO differentials against right-handed pitchers.
Joc Pederson
Pederson is another player, who has dominated right-handed pitching, posting 0.165 wOBA and 0.177 ISO differentials against righties. He has also recorded 80 of his 89 career home runs against righties, including a pair of home runs on Opening Day. Pederson already looks to be in form, and he also possesses power against righties.
Rhys Hoskins
Hoskins has been a reverse splits hitter, recording 31 of his 34 home runs in 2018 against right-handed pitching. He also posted a .549 slugging percentage against righties last year. Hoskins enters this game with 0.066 wOBA and 0.166 ISO differentials against righties, and he’ll be playing in an extremely hitter friendly stadium. He came through on Opening Day with a grand slam, and we may be in line for another homer today.
Ryan O’Hearn
O’Hearn quietly flashed against right-handed pitching in 2018, posting 0.241 wOBA and 0.22 ISO differentials against righties. He also recorded an elite .705 slugging percentage against them. As if that wasn’t enough, over 50% of O’Hearns hits against righties last season went for extra-bases.
Travis Shaw
Shaw pops out for playing in an extremely hitter friendly stadium. He also dominated right-handed pitching last season, posting 30 of his 32 home runs against righties. He also posted a .535 slugging percentage against them, while also recording 0.093 wOBA and 0.193 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Nick Margevicius
Margevicius is making somewhat of an unheard of jump to the MLB, as he has never thrown at a level higher than Single-A baseball. He did find success in the minors, though, recording a 14-9 record with a 3.00 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. More importantly, Margevicius posted a 10.2 K/9, while holding his opponents to a 0.5 HR/9. He has also displayed strong control, as he posted only a 1.2 BB/9 through 183 innings.
There aren’t many stats to help make a case for Margevicius, but he gets an elite matchup against the San Francisco Giants. They have struggled against left-handed pitching in the past, and that will likely be the case again today. Margevicius is a -126 favorite in a game set at 8 runs. The Giants own an implied run total of only 3.8 runs, setting up Margevicius to be one of the best value pitchers on the slate.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Brandon Drury
We’re simply going back to the well with Drury, who finally looks like he may have put it all together on a Major League level. He hit over .300 in Spring Training, while also flashing some power. Last night, he recorded a triple for us, as well. As I mentioned before, Drury is a higher level prospect, who will continue to get better as he sees more playing time in the MLB, and we need to take advantage of his low price tag before it jumps.
He gets a matchup against Spencer Turnbull, who struggled against everyone in very limited innings last season. Overall, he allowed right-handed batters to hit for a .241 average with a .379 slugging percentage and a .292 wOBA. Drury is leading off for the Toronto Blue Jays, who are expected to score plenty of runs today, making him an elite option at the top of their lineup.
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