Pitchers
Top Tier: Gerrit Cole/German Marquez- We have a pretty weird slate on the first Friday of the season considering that it’s only eight games, not the full slates we are used to, but that makes identifying viable pitching options much more straightforward. There are two clear standouts tonight given ability and matchup in Gerrit Cole and German Marquez, and while you just decide between one or the other for your cash games on FanDuel, I could see them becoming the chalky duo paired together on DraftKings.
Cole finally broke out in 2018, his first season in Houston, ramping up his strikeout rate from 23.1% in 2017 to 34.5%. Much like with Justin Verlander yesterday, this matchup with the Tampa Bay Rays inside the pitcher-friendly confides of Tropicana Field present the best safety for our cash game rosters. The Rays project to strike out over 22% of the time against right-handed pitching this season, and on an eight-game slate where there are no must-roster offenses, it’s easy to jam in Cole.
As for Marquez, he was one of the hottest topics of the MLB offseason. Coming off one of the most dominant second-halves in MLB history posting a 2.57 SIERA with 34.0% strikeouts post All-Star break, and that’s while pitching close to half of his innings in Coors Field. If you dig into the numbers more, he was absolutely dominant against right-handed batters boasting a 2.36 xFIP and 35.0% strikeouts for the season compared to 3.88 xFIP and 22.0% strikeouts against lefties. I totally can see how/why people think he will regress from what we saw last season. especially given his home park, but this matchup with the Miami Marlins is not one we can ignore. To start, they’re probably the worst overall lineup in the MLB, and they’re only sending three lefties to the plate tonight — Curtis Granderson, Neil Walker and JT Riddle…yikes! On FanDuel, I’m comfortable dropping down to Marquez over Cole should you want some money to spend on bats, but on DraftKings, with no “must” spends I don’t hate trying to pair them and scraping the bottom of the value barrel for offense.
Mid Tier: Joey Lucchesi- If you don’t feel comfortable allocating $20,400 for two pitchers on DraftKings, look no further than Joey Lucchesi. Lucchesi gets the same matchup that drew us to Eric Lauer on Opening Day, the San Francisco Giants, which resulted in 20.50 DraftKings. Lucchesi has much more strikeout upside than someone like Lauer, and the matchup couldn’t get better as we should see another lefty laden lineup tonight for the Giants. Last year, he sported a near 29.0% strikeout rate with over 60.0% ground balls to batters of the same hand. I love him in all formats tonight and he would be a lock for me if there were more bats to spend up on.
Low Tier: Matt Boyd- If you feel like dumpster diving in GPPs for a cheapie tonight, Matt Boyd stands out above the crowd as he gets a date with the Toronto Blue Jays who allowed Jordan Zimermann to go perfect for six innings on Opening Day. Boyd is one of those weird pitchers who isn’t great, but he is nowhere near as bad as people think he is. His strikeout rate jumped from 18.2% in 2017 to 22.4% in 2018, thanks in part to some pretty significant increased slider usage. The matchup is good against a strikeout-prone Blue Jays lineup, my only worry is that we will see seven or eight righties albeit some below-average ones. Ultimately, I won’t be targeting Boyd in cash games but I will have some exposure as a tournament SP2 on multi-pitcher sites.
Building Blocks
Manny Machado- Machado sticks out as my favorite play on the entire slate in a tantalizing matchup with Derek Holland. Holland allows above-average hard hits and fly balls to right-handers, and every home run he gave up in 2018 was to a batter from the right-side (19). Machado is patient enough to give us a high-floor in cash games, and he has slate-breaking power especially in a matchup as good as this.
Paul DeJong- Freddy Peralta is one of the wildest starting pitcher’s in the MLB, and while he has incredible strikeout stuff he still allowed 37.0% hard hits and 56% fly balls to right-handed batters in 2018. DeJong had more power from the right side in 2018 — a .206 ISO — and will be locked into the heart of one of the top offenses on this slate.
Today’s Cheap Lead-Off- We always have some cheap lead-off men to choose from for cash games, and tonight it looks like we will be able to choose between Josh Harrison, Robbie Grossman and Brandon Drury. All are in play for me in all formats once lineups get confirmed, but for now I would rank them in the order that I listed them, and using multiple of these guys will go a long way in pairing Cole + Marquez on DK should that be the route you choose.
Stacks
1. Los Angeles Angels- The Angels stick out above the rest on a pretty weak offensive slate given the matchup with Marco Estrada. We know Estrada as a fly ball machine, but he is also coming off his worst season in the big leagues — he struck out under 17% of opposing batters and surrendered over 1.8 HR/9 innings. The problem is, this stack has lost some serious juice with Justin Upton injured, but you can still fit in Mike Trout, Kole Calhoun and Justin Bour comfortably.
2. San Diego Padres- Both the Angels and Padres didn’t really help me out after I was high on them on Opening Day, but that’s baseball man! The Padres get an even better matchup tonight against Derek Holland, who was much better in 2018 than years past but he still allowed over 40.0% hard-contact to righties and that came with pretty much zero ground ball ability. This lineup is no longer a pushover, and it’s packed with right-handed power in addition to the newly signed Manny Machado who I covered above. I would be looking at using the trio of Franmil Reyes, Wil Myers and Hunter Renfroe + Fernando Tatis Jr alongside Machado on DraftKings.
3. St. Louis Cardinals- This is such a weird slate! I don’t typically like to attack the Brewers considering how dominant their bullpen is, but they are missing two key pieces there so outside of Josh Hader it is no longer *as scary* as it was last season. Regardless of the bullpen, the Cardinals face-off with Freddy Peralta who has big-time strikeout potential (30.0% K%), but also is extremely wild (12.5% BB%). When Peralta blows up, it’s bad and that’s why I would be interested in a four man stack with Matt Carpenter, Paul Goldschmidt, Paul DeJong and Marcell Ozuna. This is a patient Cardinals team and if Peralta can’t find the zone in the first inning it could spell disaster.
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
