Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Boston Red Sox
The Boston Red Sox found plenty of offensive success during the 2018 season, leading the MLB in runs scored, team batting average, and OPS. They also ranked ninth in the MLB in home runs last season. Boston was better at home in 2018, but they still posted a .255 average with a .426 slugging percentage and a .756 OPS on the road. Furthermore, Boston averaged 5.0 runs and 3.2 extra-base hits per game on the road. Tonight, the Red Sox are -143 favorites in a game set at 8.5 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 4.7 runs.
Boston gets a matchup against Yusei Kikuchi, who is entering his rookie season. He threw well in his first start of the season, but only threw 4.2 innings. He struggled a bit more in Spring Training, where he posted a 2-1 record with a 4.00 ERA through three starts. Kikuchi also owns a career 8.1 K/9 with a 0.7 HR/9, but throwing well in Japan simply doesn’t always translate to the MLB. This is as bad of a matchup as Kikuchi could get early in his career, although he will benefit from throwing in a pitcher friendly stadium. With that being said, Boston is one of the most consistent options in the MLB, and they have plenty of batters who can dominate left-handed pitching.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Oakland A’s
The Oakland A’s featured one of the best offenses in the MLB last season, ranking fourth in the MLB in runs scored, third in home runs, 13th in team batting average, and fifth in OPS. Oakland struggled a bit at home, but they still posted a .241 average with a .412 slugging percentage and a .732 OPS through 81 games in Oakland. They also averaged 4.6 runs and 3.4 extra-base hits per game at home. The A’s are -112 favorites in a game set at 8.5 runs, and they feature an implied total of 4.4 runs tonight.
Oakland gets a matchup against Matt Harvey, who is simply a shell of his former self at this point. Last season, Harvey posted a 7-9 record with a 4.94 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. He also struggled with a 1.6 HR/9 to go along with a 7.6 K/9 over 155 innings. Harvey struggled against everyone last season, but he was at his worst against left-handed batters. Lefties were able to post a .262 average with a .489 slugging percentage and a .341 wOBA against him last season. Righties also recorded a .271/.442/.326 line against Harvey last season, though. He was also a significantly worse pitcher on the road last season, and while he’s with a new team, that could play a factor in this game tonight. Unfortunately, Oakland is playing in a hitter friendly stadium, but the matchup is more than good enough to attack.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Milwaukee Brewers
The Milwaukee Brewers weren’t elite in 2018, but they were above average. Last season, they ranked 12th in the MLB in runs scored and team batting average, fourth in home runs, and ninth in OPS. They found quite a bit of success at home, where they posted a .247 average with a .431 slugging percentage and a .753 OPS. Milwaukee also averaged 4.7 runs and 3.1 extra-base hits per game at home. Tonight, they are -115 favorites in a game set at 8.5 runs, and they own an implied total of 4.4 runs.
Jack Flaherty is scheduled to take the mound for the St. Louis Cardinals. He found quite a bit of success in 2018, recording an 8-9 record with a 3.34 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP over 28 starts. He also posted a 10.9 K/9 with a 1.2 HR/9 over 151 innings last season. Flaherty was a slightly worse option on the road, though, and he’ll be moving to a hitter friendly stadium tonight. He was a reverse splits pitcher last season, allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .203 average with a .380 slugging percentage and a .287 wOBA. Milwaukee will likely go overlooked because of the matchup against Flaherty, but the Vegas line suggests they could find success tonight, especially playing in a hitter friendly stadium.
Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor
Travis Shaw
Shaw posted 16 home runs at home and 16 home runs on the road last season, but he saw 24 fewer at-bats at home. Simply put, he was more consistent at home. He also posted 30 of his 32 total home runs against right-handed pitching, and he enters this game with 0.099 wOBA and 0.19 ISO differentials against righties.
Matt Chapman
Chapman has been a reverse splits hitter throughout his career, and he brings 0.032 wOBA and 0.101 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching into this game. He owns 31 of his 39 career home runs against right-handed pitching, as well. Tonight, he gets a matchup against Matt Harvey, who features one of the highest HR/9 on the slate.
Kole Calhoun
Calhoun gets a matchup against Marco Estrada, who owns the highest HR/9 on the slate. Calhoun also brings 0.009 wOBA and 0.097 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching into this game. He also recorded 16 of his 19 home runs last season against righties, and that trend should continue this season.
Mike Trout
Trout is in an ideal spot. Marco Estrada is a reverse splits pitcher, while Trout is a reverse splits hitter. He brings 0.038 wOBA and 0.085 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching into this game. He also posted 33 home runs against righties last season, and there’s no reason to believe Estrada will be able to slow him down.
Justin Bour
Another Los Angeles Angel? Absolutely. I don’t necessarily believe all three will have a home run tonight, but this is an elite matchup, and they all dominate right-handed pitching. Bour enters this game with 0.084 wOBA and 0.149 ISO differentials against righties. He has also hit 76 of his 84 career home runs off of right-handed pitchers. Estrada owns a terrible HR/9, and each of these players have a serious chance to go yard tonight.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Matt Shoemaker
Shoemaker is an extremely interesting option. He only threw in seven games last season, recording a 2-2 record with a 4.94 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. He also posted a 9.6 K/9 with a 0.9 HR/9 through 31 innings. He generally didn’t throw deep into games, but he flashed the potential to reach 100 pitches in the past. Shoemaker also flashed tremendous upside in the past, although we may be looking passed that because of his limited games last season. Tonight, Shoemaker is a -130 favorite in a game set at 8.5 runs, giving his opponents an implied total of only 4.0 runs.
He gets a matchup against the Detroit Tigers, who rank roughly as an average team on the slate in both strikeouts per at-bat and team wOBA. They have a right-handed heavy lineup, which is what Shoemaker struggled with last season. With that being said, he held right-handed batters to a .224 average with a .444 slugging percentage and a .338 wOBA in 2017. He certainly comes with some risk, but he makes a high upside tournament option for a low price tag.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Brandon Drury
Drury’s numbers don’t fly off the page, as he struggled with a .169 average in limited games last season. With that being said, Drury is a strong prospect, who will continue to get better as he gains experience. That development was evident in Spring Training, as Drury found plenty of success with a .315 average, .574 slugging percentage, and .947 OPS.
He gets a plus matchup against Matt Boyd, who is another player that could continue to progress as he gains experience. In 2018, Boyd struggled more against right-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .230 average with a .414 slugging percentage and a .312 wOBA. Drury has earned the right to leadoff for the Toronto Blue Jays, and it isn’t often we get this cheap of an option leading off for a team that has plenty of run potential tonight.
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