Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
New York Yankees
The New York Yankees were one of the best offenses in the MLB last season, ranking second in runs scored and OPS, while also leading the league in home runs by a wide margin. They have also been significantly better in New York, where they own a .260 average with a .474 slugging percentage and an .819 OPS. The Yankees are also averaging 5.6 runs and 3.4 extra-base hits per game at home. They are currently -370 favorites in a game set at 8.5 runs, as well.
New York gets an elite matchup against Andrew Cashner, who posted a 4-15 record with a 5.29 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP over 28 starts (29 games) last season. He also allowed a 1.5 HR/9, while recording only 5.8 K/9 over 153 innings. He has allowed right-handed batters to hit for more consistency, allowing a .301 average with a .483 slugging percentage and a .370 wOBA, while lefties hit for more power, posting a .277/.508/.361 line last season. The Yankees get one of very few elite matchups on Opening Day, and they could potentially possess the best offense in the MLB. They can safely be stacked in all leagues.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Chicago Cubs
The Chicago Cubs weren’t necessarily an elite offense last season, but they found plenty of success. Overall, they ranked ninth in the MLB in runs scored, 22nd in home runs, fourth in team batting average, and 10th in OPS. They found some success on the road, where they hit .255 with a .406 slugging percentage and a .735 OPS. Chicago is also averaged 4.6 runs and 3.1 extra-base hits per game on the road. The Cubs are currently -124 favorites in a game set at 9.5 runs.
Chicago gets a matchup against Mike Minor, who had plenty of ups and downs last season. Overall, he posted a 12-8 record with a 4.19 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP over 28 starts. He also recorded a 1.4 HR/9 with a 7.6 K/9 over 157 innings. Surprisingly, Minor was a reverse splits pitcher slate season, allowing left-handed batters to hit for a .257 average with a .527 slugging percentage and a .334 wOBA. Right-handed batters have found more success in terms of power against him throughout his career, though. Some options for Chicago could become a bit “chalky” on this slate, especially with DraftKings splitting the games into two slate.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Kansas City Royals
The Kansas City Royals struggled offensive throughout the 2018 season, ranking 25th in the MLB in runs scored and OPS, while ranking 26th in home runs. With that being said, they did rank 18th in team batting average. They were a significantly better offense at home, though, where they posted a .257 average with a .402 slugging percentage and a .723 OPS. Kansas City also averaged 4.1 runs and 3.0 extra-base hits per game at home. The Royals are -108 favorites in a game set at 8.5 runs today.
Kansas City gets a matchup against Carlos Rodon, who only started 20 games last season. He posted a 6-8 record with a 4.18 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in those games. He held his opponents to a 1.1 HR/9, while recording a 6.7 K/9 through 120.2 innings. Rodon struggled significantly more against left-handed batters last season, allowing them to hit for a .242 average with a .500 slugging percentage and a .370 wOBA. He’s allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .253/.420/.331 line throughout his career, though. The lack of home runs allowed won’t truly hinder the Kansas City stack, though, as they’re a team based more around speed than power. That is where their upside comes from, and that could be on full display early in the season, when we can get their players at lower ownership.
Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor
Kris Bryant
Bryant has been an elite option against left-handed pitching, as he currently possesses a 0.144 wOBA and a 0.206 ISO differential against lefties. He gets a plus matchup against Mike Minor in an extremely hitter friendly stadium today, as well. Last season, Bryant posted a 31% hard-hit rate with a 40% fly ball rate. He also posted 6 of his 13 home runs against lefties last season, even though he had nearly four times as many plate appearances against right-handed pitchers.
Rhys Hoskins
Hoskins gets the added bonus of playing in an extremely hitter friendly stadium in Philadelphia when playing at home. He gets a solid matchup against Julio Teheran, and Hoskins owns 0.067 wOBA and 0.164 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching. He also posted a 34% hard-hit rate and a 51% fly ball rate last season. Furthermore, Hoskins hit 91.2% of his home runs against right-handed pitchers last year.
Justin Bour
Bour only posted a 37% fly ball rate last season, but he paired that with a 37% hard-hit rate. He was also at his best against right-handed pitching, recording 0.088 wOBA and 0.152 ISO differentials against righties. Bour also owns 90.5% of his home runs against right-handed pitching throughout his career. He gets a plus matchup against Mike Fiers today.
Mike Trout
Trout is another player that gets a matchup against Fiers on this slate. He has quietly looked outstanding against right-handed pitching, owning 0.039 wOBA and 0.088 ISO differentials against righties. He also posted an elite 44% hard-hit rate to go along with a 45% fly ball rate last season. What would Opening Day be without a Trout recommendation, right?
Travis Shaw
Shaw is playing at home, where he benefits from a hitter friendly stadium. He also gets a matchup against Miles Mikolas, and Shaw owns 0.103 wOBA and 0.193 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching. He also posted 39% hard-hit and 44% fly ball rates last season.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Eric Lauer
Lauer struggled quite a bit throughout the 2018 season, posting a 6-7 record with a 4.34 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP through 23 starts. He held his opponents to a 1.2 HR/9, while recording an 8.0 K/9 in 112 innings. He’s still only 23 years old, though, and he has flashed more strikeout potential in the minors. Lauer also flashed 30+ DK point upside at times last season. He’s currently a -108 favorite in a game set at only 7.5 runs.
Lauer gets a great matchup against the San Francisco Giants, who rank in the bottom-six of the slate in team wOBA. They rank above average in terms of strikeouts per at-bat, but Lauer simply doesn’t need a ton of strikeouts to hit value. He was surprisingly at his best against right-handed batters last season, holding them to a .278 average with a .432 slugging percentage and a .341 wOBA. San Francisco owns one of the worst offenses in the MLB, and Lauer will benefit from playing at home. He should also see run support in this game, giving him the added edge for a win at a low price tag.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Adam Frazier
Frazier found some success last season, posting a .277 average with a .456 slugging percentage and a .798 OPS over 113 games. He also posted a 34% hard-hit rate with a 31% fly ball rate and a 91 mph exit velocity last season. Frazier has also been at his best against right-handed pitching, recording 0.1 wOBA and 0.09 ISO differentials against righties.
He gets a plus matchup against Luis Castillo, who struggled against left-handed batters last season. In 2018, he allowed lefties to hit for a .285 average with a .530 slugging percentage and a .373 wOBA. Frazier is expected to hit leadoff for the Pittsburgh Pirates, and he makes an outstanding option for a low price tag today.
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