We’re coming off of an NBA loss on PrizePicks, but we’re looking to bounce back in a new week. We’re shifting over to Monkey Knife Fight and baseball (MLB) for this play. There are two pitchers on this slate that have significant juice on their overs or unders, and MKF hasn’t adjusted to this yet. We’ll also be using the SPF Predictor, which likes one side of each play. Below, you’ll find the SPF Predictors’ favorite bet for the Los Angeles Angels vs New York Yankees game.
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Prop Pick – Los Angeles Angels vs New York Yankees
Jordan Montgomery over 4.5 strikeouts
Montgomery’s seen mixed results throughout the season. He owns an 0-1 record with a 3.30 ERA. That’s also backed by a 3.69 xFIP through 46.1 innings. Montgomery owns a career-low 7.2 K/9 this season. His strikeout rate sits at only 19.7% this season, but he’s due for positive regression.
The southpaw enters this game with 13.5% swinging-strike and 29.3% CSW rates in 2022. Essentially, this suggests that his strikeout rate should sit significantly higher, potentially around 25%.
Montgomery gets a solid matchup against the Los Angeles Angels, who have struggled with strikeouts throughout the season. Over the last 14 days, they’ve recorded a 24.5% strikeout rate, which is one of the highest on the slate.
The Angels strike out at a higher rate against right-handed, but they still strike out at the 12th-highest rate in the MLB against lefties (23.2%).
This is a great matchup for Montgomery, and he owns -160 odds to go over 4.5 strikeouts. That’s the clear route to go with this play.
Noah Syndergaard under 4.5 strikeouts
Syndergaard’s in a similar position as Montgomery. He owns a 4-2 record with a 3.08 ERA and a 3.89 xFIP through 7 starts. He owns a career-low 6.4 K/9 through 38 innings. His strikeout rate sits at only 17.3%, and his 11.8% swinging-strike and 28.9% CSW rates suggest he’ll also see positive regression on that end.
With that being said, Syndergaard gets a tough matchup against the New York Yankees. New York’s found plenty of offensive success in recent games, and they’re only striking out 20.6% of the time over the last 14 days.
The Yankees also rank 20th in the MLB in strikeout rate (21.5%) against right-handed pitching. It’s also important to note that they’re playing in an extremely small Yankees Stadium as well.
Syndergaard’s struggled to find strikeouts throughout the season, and he may struggle to throw deep into this game. He owns -140 odds on under 4.5 strikeouts, and our SPF Predictor loves that side as well.
Bet Jordan Montgomery “more than” 4.5 strikeouts and Noah Syndergaard “less than” 4.5 strikeouts to 3x your buy-in
