With The Grain Prop Bet:
Travis Shaw (+325) – Milwaukee Brewers – 3B
One should expect the odds for Travis Shaw to hit a home run tonight to be somewhere around +350. If the odds are released, and it happens to be the case that they are worse than that, pass on this recommendation. Shaw has great home run potential tonight, though. Matt Harvey is taking the mound for the Los Angeles Angels, and he is currently allowing 1.7 HR/9, while Shaw is hitting 0.065 HR/AB. The wind will be a factor, blowing 15 MPH from left to right, which should benefit a left-handed Shaw against a right-handed Harvey. Shaw’s ISO differential tonight is 0.197, and over the last 15 days, he is sporting a 45% hard hit rate. Combine that with his 40% fly ball rate, his 95 MPH average exit velocity, and his 213-foot average batted ball distance, and Shaw is poised for success. Home runs are extremely difficult to predict, but all the indicators are here.
Against The Grain Prop Bet:
Mark Canha (+400) – Oakland Athletics – OF
Mark Canha should see odds close to +400 or so to hit a home run tonight against John Means. Means is currently sporting a ridiculous 2.0 HR/9, and Canha is hitting 0.047 HR/AB. Most importantly, Canha is facing off against a left-handed pitcher, so his ISO differential is 0.159. Over the last 15 days, Canha has an average batted ball distance of 252 feet, showing off his impressive power. With a 69% fly ball rate, all he needs to do is increase his 38% hard hit rate, and the home runs will start coming much more frequently. His average exit velocity over the last 15 days is 94 MPH, which is solid for someone that is not seeing the ball all that well. Finally, Canha’s average air time on batted balls is over four seconds, which is another indicator of potential home run success. The most important factor in this recommendation is that a terrible left-handed Means will likely throw to Canha at least two or three times. The weather in Baltimore is decent for home run hitters, and the wind is blowing. Vegas has the Oakland Athletics implied run total at five-and-a-half runs, and hopefully one of those comes via a Canha jack.
*MyBookie continually updates available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see Travis Shaw or Mark Canha available, they will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*
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