With The Grain Prop Bet:
Gary Sanchez (+300) – New York Yankees – C
It is no surprise that Gary Sanchez ends up on a list of players with the potential to hit a home run on any given night. Last night, against the Baltimore Orioles, he hit three over the fence. Tonight, he gets a much more difficult matchup against Justin Verlander, but for as good of a fantasy option and strikeout pitcher that Verlander is, he allows 1.171 HR/9. Sanchez is hitting 0.064 HR/AB, the wind is blowing hard in Houston, and the temperature is over 75 degrees. In the last 15 days, Sanchez has an average batted ball distance of 266 feet, and a ridiculous fly ball rate of 72%. His exit velocity on batted balls is 94 MPH, and his hard hit rate is unsurprisingly high at 56%. Perhaps most importantly, his average air time for each batted ball is 4.51 seconds, which is the highest of any batter stepping into the batter’s box tonight. Sanchez is definitely not a unique bet to hit a home run tonight, but until he proves otherwise, his numbers suggest that he is doing everything right to continue to make outfielders turn their backs to the pitcher.
Against The Grain Prop Bet:
Victor Robles (+700) – Washington Nationals – OF
Victor Robles is not typically seen as a power hitter, and for that reason, his odds to hit a home run tonight are astronomical, comparatively speaking. However, Vincent Velasquez is a right-handed pitcher that allows 1.091 HR/9. Robles has an ISO differential of 0.116 against right-handed pitching, suggesting that there is added power in his bat tonight. This season, he is hitting 0.066 HR/AB, and the humidity in Philadelphia is notable. Over the last 15 days, Robles has an average batted ball distance of 232 feet, but more importantly, he is hitting fly balls at a 56% clip, ground balls at a 12% clip, and line drives at a 31% clip. Fly balls are the best indicator of home runs, while line drives are the best indicator that a hitter is seeing the ball well. He has a horrible hard hit rate of 25%, and if that number starts to climb, he could start seeing a significant uptick in power. Remember, high-upside bets like this are unlikely, but there are reasons to suggest that a Robles home run is not as unlikely as the betting odds suggest tonight.
By Jason Bales (@BalesTJason)
