With The Grain Prop Bet:
Mike Trout (TBA) – Los Angeles Angels – OF
This is sort of a cop-out recommendation, but there are only five games tonight, and the home runs will likely be few and far between. Masahiro Tanaka will take the mound for the New York Yankees, and he is currently allowing 1.3 home runs per nine innings pitched, which is actually the third highest of any pitcher on the slate. Mike Trout has reverse splits against right-handed pitchers, so he will enter the game with a 0.100 ISO differential, and currently, he is hitting 0.079 HR/AB. The weather in Los Angeles will be relatively decent at around 65 degrees with a wind speed of 5 MPH blowing out toward center field. Trout, unfortunately, only has a 30% fly ball rate over the last 15 days, but that is due to his high 30% line drive rate. His average distance on batted balls is 213 feet, and his hard hit rate is almost 40%. Trout is always a decent bet for a home run, and on a slate without too many promising options, he seems like the best bettors are going to get tonight. It is also worth noting that the sharp money is on the Angels tonight, so perhaps Tanaka will not fare as well as most would hope.
Against The Grain Prop Bet:
Tyler White (TBA) – Houston Astros – 1B
Tyler White is a great, high-upside home run prop bet tonight. Unfortunately, Trevor Bauer is on the mound for the Cleveland Indians, and he is only allowing slightly more than half-a-home-run per nine innings pitched. As far as fantasy is concerned, he is actually a great option, and for the first night in a long time, the Houston Astros are not a great stack. That said, White should have a wide line via Vegas to hit a home run. As far as power is concerned, he hits right-handed pitching just as well as left-handed pitching, and the weather is good in Houston at almost 80 degrees. In the last 15 days, which happens to be 6 games for White, he has an average batted ball distance of 233 feet, an average exit velocity of 91 MPH, a fly ball rate of 36%, and a hard hit rate of 18%. His hard hit rate is concerning, as it is down 13% from his 12-month average, but it should start to adjust positively. His recent batted ball luck suggests he has been rather unlucky at the plate, which tends to lead toward wider odds via Vegas for prop bets. Again, tonight’s slate is not very home run inducive, so bettors will have to make due or not bet. White is a shot-in-the-dark kind of option, but there are good reasons to back up this recommendation.
*MyBookie continually updates available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see Mike Trout or Tyler White available, they will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*
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