With The Grain Prop Bet:
Mike Tauchman (+480) – New York Yankees – OF
Picking on Matt Harvey, especially with regard to home run prop bets, is always a great idea. He has been horrible for quite some time now, and currently, he is allowing 1.6 HR/9. The humidity tonight in Los Angeles is decent, the weather is expected to be above 65 degrees, which is rather high relatively speaking for tonight’s slate, and the wind is blowing to left field. Over his last seven games, Mike Tauchman has an average batted ball distance of 246 feet, an average exit velocity of 94 MPH, and a fly ball rate of 50%. His hard hit rate is a little low at 35%, but his batted ball distance is up 36 feet from his 12-month average, and his hard hit rate is up 9%. Most importantly, his HR/AB is 0.079! Tauchman is a left-handed batter with ISO and wOBA differentials of 0.328 and 0.146 respectively. The New York Yankees have an implied run total over four runs, and Tauchman could definitely contribute to that with a long ball.
Against The Grain Prop Bet:
Mark Canha (+480) – Oakland Athletics – 1B
I recommended Mark Canha on the ‘Battle of the Bales’ article, mostly because he has such great home run potential tonight against the Texas Rangers and Mike Minor. Minor looked incredible in his last game, throwing a complete game shutout, and over the course of the season, he has a 2.60 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. That said, Canha has a ton of power against left-handed pitchers, currently sporting a 0.159 ISO differential against left-handed pitching, and he is hitting 0.047 HR/AB. The weather is not great for hitters tonight in Oakland, but over his last five games, Canha has an insane 296-foot average batted ball distance. His average exit velocity is 97 MPH, his fly ball rate is 57%, and his hard hit rate is the same. In short, he is SMOKING the ball right now. His distance is 84 feet more than his 12-month average, and his hard hit rate is up 21% over the same time span. Until he starts to cool off, continue to expect success from Canha. His odds value should be there, as well.
*MyBookie continually updates available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see Mike Tauchman and Mark Canha available, they will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*
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