With The Grain Prop Bet:
Matt Carpenter (+470) – St. Louis Cardinals – 3B
I recommended Matt Carpenter on the ‘Battle of the Bales’ article earlier today, and he also makes for a great home run prop bet tonight. Carpenter, who currently has a rather low .203 batting average, has been heating up of recent. His average batted ball distance over the last 15 days is 245 feet, his average exit velocity is 95 MPH, and his fly ball rate is 55%. Combine all of that with a stellar 47% hard hit rate, and he has all the makings of someone that has home run potential tonight. He has been rather unlucky at the plate to start the season, so expect home runs, batting average, and RBIs to all start increasing. In season-long fantasy baseball leagues, now is a great time to acquire Carpenter. In daily fantasy baseball leagues, roster him, as his price tag should be higher.
Against The Grain Prop Bet:
Robinson Chirinos (+375) – Houston Astros – C
Mike Zunino hit another double yesterday. That home run is just days away, but we have to move on. Going back to the catcher position tonight, Robinson Chirinos makes for a great, high-upside home run prop bet against the Texas Rangers. Drew Smyly is a left-handed pitcher that struggles to avoid the longball, allowing 1.6 HR/9. In his last two starts, Smyly is allowing an average exit velocity on batted balls of 100 MPH! He really is struggling to start the season, and the Houston Astros will take advantage in a hitter-friendly, weather-friendly ballpark tonight. To start the season, Chirinos has a .225 batting average, two home runs, and six RBIs. He comes into tonight’s game with positive ISO and wOBA differentials, as well as an average batted ball distance of 244 feet over the last 15 days. He also sports an average exit velocity of 91 MPH, a 63% fly ball rate, and a 21% hard hit rate. His hard hit rate is discouraging, but with how bad Smyly has been to start the season, the upside is present. Chirinos will be everything that Zunino was not.
*MyBookie continually updates available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see Matt Carpenter and Robinson Chirinos available, they will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*
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