With The Grain Prop Bet:
Dan Vogelbach (N/A) – Seattle Mariners – 1B
Dan Vogelbach is hitting .341 with six home runs and 11 RBIs to begin the 2019 campaign. He comes into tonight’s contest against the Cleveland Indians with 0.101 ISO and 0.184 wOBA differentials. The temperature is going to be under 60 degrees, but the wind is blowing around 10 MPH out toward center field, and the humidity is higher than average. Most importantly, over the last 15 days, Vogelbach is averaging 280 feet and a 97 MPH exit velocity per batted ball. His fly ball rate is 50% and his hard hit rate is even higher. His distance is up 35 feet from his 12-month average, his exit velocity is up 2 MPH, and his recent batted ball luck suggests, if anything, he has been slightly unlucky to start the season. Yes, seriously. Vogelbach, despite hitting .341 with six home runs and 11 RBIs, based on his advanced statistics, has been slightly unlucky this season! His home run potential is high enough to warrant that long-shot bet tonight.
*Dan Vogelbach is not starting tonight for the Seattle Mariners. Pivot to Ji-Man Choi (+550). His exit velocity has been great, his ISO and wOBA splits are solid, and his hard hit rate is high enough.*
Against The Grain Prop Bet:
Lucas Duda (+325) – Kansas City Royals – 1B
Lucas Duda is an extremely interesting home run prop bet contender tonight. So far this season, he has not been performing well at the plate, but advanced statistics suggest he is getting unlucky. In fact, according to his recent batted ball luck, he is the seventh unluckiest player on the tonight’s slate, and the third unluckiest projected starter behind only Chris Davis and Peter Bourjos. Reynaldo Lopez is on the mound for the Chicago White Sox tonight, and he is allowing 1.4 HR/9 this season. Duda only has one home run this season, but his fly ball rate over the last 15 days is 73%! Yes, that deserves an exclamation mark. It is the highest of any batter on the slate tonight. He also has a hard hit rate of 40%, an average batted ball distance of 241 feet, and an average exit velocity of 93 MPH. Duda should, despite his home run indicators suggesting he has a great chance to go deep, have very wide odds to get that jack. As a bonus, the humidity in Chicago is a positive factor tonight.
*MyBookie continually updates available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see Dan Vogelbach and Lucas Duda available, they will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*
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