With The Grain Prop Bet:
J.D. Martinez (+225) – Boston Red Sox – OF
J.D. Martinez is obviously one of the league’s premier power hitters, which means that he will never sport wide odds to hit a homerun. That said, he is currently locked in at the four-spot for the Boston Red Sox tonight, and he gets a good matchup against the Toronto Blue Jays with Aaron Sanchez on the mound. Martinez is a minor reverse splits hitter with a 0.043 ISO differential against right-handed pitchers, and he is currently hitting 0.079 HR/AB. In a game with an implied run total of 5.2 for the Red Sox, and an average batted ball distance of 250 feet for Martinez, he has all the makings of jacking one over the fence. In the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity of 97 MPH, which is in part due to his high 47% hard hit rate. Trio that with a 42% fly ball rate, and there is no questioning the validity of this recommendation. Unfortunately, if it does hit, it will not pay out as well as some other, more risky recommendations (see below), but a win is a win.
Against The Grain Prop Bet:
Rowdy Tellez (+700) – Toronto Blue Jays – 1B
Rowdy Tellez has been confirmed as the Toronto Blue Jays five-hole hitter tonight against the Boston Red Sox. This left-handed first baseman will face off against Nathan Eovaldi, who is currently allowing 1.2 HR/9. Tellez has power, knocking in 0.063 HR/AB, and he has a massive advantage against right-handed pitching, coming into this game with 0.318 ISO and 0.305 wOBA differentials. In the last 15 days, he is actually averaging a further batted ball distance than J.D. Martinez at 257 feet. He has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 94 MPH, a 35% hard hit rate, and a 47% fly ball rate. His average distance over the last 15 days is 25 feet higher than his average over the last 12 months, and his exit velocity is up 2 MPH. Tellez is a young 24-year-old, and these numbers could indicate that he is simply getting better at the plate. He already has two home runs this season, but hopefully, he can add to that total tonight. The expected odds for Tellez to hit a home run tonight should be somewhere around +550.
*MyBookie continually updates available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see Rowdy Tellez available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*
Follow Jason Bales (@BalesTJason)
