With The Grain Prop Bet:
Andrew McCutchen (+400) – Philadelphia Phillies – OF
Andrew McCutchen is one of the best options available tonight, as far as fantasy sports are concerned, and he makes for an extremely interesting home run prop bet, as well. To lead off (no pun intended), he is hitting first for the Philadelphia Phillies right now, which means that he should see five or more at-bats. Jeremy Hellickson, a former Phillie, is on the mound for the Washington Nationals, and he is currently sporting a 1.2 HR/9 and only a 6.1 SO/9. The Nationals are expected to score five or more runs tonight, and despite the weather being questionable, the Phillies are home, which means a small ballpark for McCutchen. Over the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 227 feet, while racking up a hard hit rate of 40% and a fly ball rate of 45%. The average exit velocity on his batted balls is 93 MPH. He already has two home runs this season, and hitting in Philadelphia is really going to help to rejuvenate his career at the plate. His odds should be close to +350 tonight, which is solid for a batter with quite a bit of pop in his bat.
Against The Grain Prop Bet:
Jung-ho Kang (+550) – Pittsburgh Pirates – 3B
Jung-ho Kang should have odds much closer to +500 or more to hit a home run tonight, as he is not typically seen as a power hitter. That said, Yu Darvish is on the mound for the Chicago Cubs, and the Pittsburgh Pirates should be able to take advantage. Darvish is surrendering 1.5 HR/9 with an abysmal 1.789 WHIP. The wind will be heavy in Chicago, per usual, so despite the cold temperature, the ball might carry. In the last 15 days, Kang touts an exit velocity on batted balls of 86 MPH, an average batted ball distance of 190 feet, a fly ball rate of 38%, and a hard hit rate of 16%. There are obvious concerns with his hard hit rate, as well as his less than ideal average exit velocity, but those numbers are tied to each other, and with a 0.152 ISO and 0.266 wOBA differential against right-handed pitching, it is a little easier to overlook them. This recommendation is based more on Kang having such great split statistics against a home-run-friendly pitcher in a windy Chicago stadium.
*MyBookie continually updates available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see Andrew McCutchen or Jung-ho Kang available, they will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*
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