Baseball

Jason’s Home Run Props – win $4,000 for July 4th

by
Jason Bales
July 4, 2019

Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:

Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers

Happy Independence Day, American readership. Happy random day in July, rest-of-the-world readership. Today’s article is going to be slightly different because Monkey Knife Fight is giving away a $4,000 prize pool to anyone that is able to total four home run predictions. Yes, this means that three players are going to have to hit four home runs. It is difficult, but not impossible. In order to maximize our potential earnings, I’ll be recommending three different three-batter lineups. All batters will be from the same game, as recommending multiple games on a four-game slate is overkill. For more information about contest rules and regulations, click here. Okay, enough with that; we are off to Texas. Griffin Canning is scheduled to take the mound for the Los Angeles Angels, and despite his high-upside due to strikeouts, Vegas has the Texas Rangers as the betting favorite not only to win the game, but also to score the most runs of all eight teams playing tonight. The only other possible route is to attack Zach Eflin and the Philadelphia Phillies. The Atlanta Braves are in play, but the Rangers are the better team to roster. Canning has a HR/9 ratio of 1.8, and Vegas has this game set at 11 total runs. The Rangers are -120 favorites, giving them an implied run total of 5.7. As an added bonus, temperatures are going to push 90 degrees, and the wind will be blowing 12 MPH from right field. Finally, Canning has a horrible 48% fly ball rate and 51% hard hit rate over his last 2 games. So, what combination of Rangers is the best? Instead of beginning at the top of the batting order like usual, let’s begin with Joey Gallo. Gallo is going to be a staple of all three lineup recommendations tonight. He is hitting 0.098 HR/AB, and in his last 10 games, he has 5 home runs. His average exit velocity on batted balls over his last 8 games is 94 MPH, his fly ball rate is over 50%, and his hard hit rate is 33%. If anyone is going to hit two home runs in one game, Gallo seems like the best bet. To fill out the remainder of the lineup, look toward a combination of Rougned Odor, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Nomar Mazara. Odor is hitting 0.045 HR/AB, and he has a minor 0.06 ISO differential against right-handed pitching. Over the last 15 days, his fly ball and hard hit rates of 45% and 54% are encouraging. If his exit velocity can spike just a little bit more north of 92 MPH, he should start seeing more home run results. Cabrera is hitting 0.039 HR/AB, and he has great splits against right-handers, entering tonight’s game with 0.149 ISO and 0.073 wOBA differentials. Over the last 15 days, his fly ball and hard hit rates are both 43%. He has the same exit velocity as Odor, and the same number of home runs in his last 10 games (1). Again, if that spikes, or if either batter squares up properly on one pitch, the home runs are coming. Finally, Mazara has 2 home runs in his last 10 games. He is hitting 0.036 HR/AB, and he has positive 0.024 ISO and 0.065 wOBA differentials against righties. In the last 15 days, he has an exit velocity of 96 MPH, a fly ball rate of 33%, and a hard hit rate of 60%. Unlike Odor and Cabrera, Mazara just needs to swing up a little more to hit more home runs. His exit velocity is exactly where it needs to be. Well, that’s all, folks. Good luck tonight!