Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:
Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins
Some will argue that this Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox recommendation is a day late, but Pete Alonso hit a home run last night, so those imaginary people need to stop complaining. More importantly, Ivan Nova and Jake Odorizzi are taking the mound for their respective teams, and the Twins never run out of home run power. Please note, Nova will only pitch one inning to start tonight’s game, replacing Dylan Covey. He is allowing 1.6 HR/9, and over the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls over 90 MPH and a hard hit rate over 30%. Once he exits the game, the White Sox only have 4 bullpen arms with an ERA lower than 4.50. With eight innings to cover, it’ll be difficult for the bullpen to hold the Twins’ offense down, especially after an extra-innings game last night. Odorizzi has been solid all season, and in his last outing, a thunderstorm cut the game short after only two innings of work. The Twins gave him the standard four days of rest, so his arm should be fine. Even so, he has a fly ball and hard hit rate of 40% over the last 15 days. Vegas has this game set at 10 total runs, and the Twins are -243 betting favorites, giving them an implied run total of 6.2.
The Twins are loaded with power bats, but no one is better than Mitch Garver right now. In his last 10 games, he is hitting just under .300 with 4 home runs and 9 RBIs. With 0.10 HR/AB this season, his power is undeniable, especially for a catcher. In the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 93 MPH, a fly ball rate of 55%, and a hard hit rate over 50%. The only other player on the team with similar advanced metrics is Eddie Rosario. He has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 94 MPH, a fly ball rate over 50%, and a hard hit rate over 40%. His batting average is only .225 over his last 10 games, but he still has 3 home runs. If the Twins secure a hit in the first inning, he should get a crack at Ivan Nova, and he dominates right-handed pitching. Finally, fill out the lineup with Jose Abreu. In the last 15 days, Abreu has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 97 MPH, a fly ball rate just under 50%, and a hard hit rate over 50%. That has translated to a .297 batting average and 4 home runs over his last 10 games. Even in a tough matchup, Abreu is a home run candidate.
Recommended Batters: Mitch Garver, Eddie Rosario, Jose Abreu
Home Run Prop Bet:
Mitch Garver (TBA) – Minnesota Twins – C
The catcher position is one that rarely gets credit for home run potential, but Mitch Garver is an exception. His advanced metrics are great over the last 15 days, his production level is high over his last 10 games, and he gets a great matchup against a tired Chicago White Sox bullpen. He makes plenty of sense as a solo bet tonight over at MyBookie.
*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*
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