Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:
New York Mets at Colorado Rockies
With all that NFL excitement over the weekend and into Monday, a little bit of boredom is necessary. The readers start to murmur, “Oh no, he’s going to do it again, isn’t he? Is he really going to recommend the…” Yes, he is. The Colorado Rockies are at home tonight in Coors Field against the New York Mets. Vegas has this game set at 13.5 total runs, and the Mets are -136 betting favorites with Marcus Stroman on the mound, giving them an implied run total of 7.3. Stroman has a ground ball rate of 50%, and he tends to avoid giving up home runs, so attacking the Rockies’ offense is not tonight’s recommendation. Rather, attack Tim Melville. He is currently sporting a fly ball rate over 40%, a hard hit rate over 35%, and a HR/9 rate of 2.4. As an added bonus, his average air time on batted balls over the last 15 days is 3.35 seconds, the second highest on the slate behind Caleb Smith.
The Mets have quite a few power bats worth consideration, but no one is more qualified for a job that requires them to hit home runs than Pete Alonso. Alonso is expected to hit second in the batting order tonight, and he enters the game with a 0.084 HR/AB ratio. Over the last 15 days, he has a fly ball rate of 45%, as well as a hard hit rate over 40%. In his last 10 games, Alonso is hitting under .200, but he still has 2 home runs, and the Coors’ bump should help. As he races toward leading the league in home runs (he currently has 47), a series against the Rockies in Colorado is a big deal. Alonso will be swinging for the fences. Next, move down one spot in the batting order to Michael Conforto. Conforto hits right-handed pitching well, entering the contest with 0.130 ISO and 0.078 wOBA differentials. He has 0.056 HR/AB this season, and over the last 15 days, his advanced metrics are solid. He has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 94 MPH, a fly ball rate over 35%, and a hard hit rate over 30%. Again, the Coors’ bump will help his power. Finally, per Monkey Knife Fight’s rules, prop plays must include action from both teams in each contest. Fine, roster Nolan Arenado. It is possible to get fancy and roster Josh Fuentes, as he has 2 home runs in 19 at-bats this season, but Arenado is more consistent. At home, Arenado is hitting over .350 on the season. In his last 10 games, he is hitting over .350 with 3 home runs and 9 RBIs. He is chasing Alonso, but with only 40 home runs, he is rather far behind. He doesn’t get a great matchup, but his advanced metrics are fantastic. In the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 93 MPH, a fly ball rate over 60%, and a hard hit rate over 50%.
Recommended Batters: Pete Alonso, Michael Conforto, Nolan Arenado
Home Run Prop Bet:
Pete Alonso (TBA) – New York Mets – 1B
Despite his great advanced metrics, Nolan Arenado’s matchup against Marcus Stroman is too much to ignore. Pete Alonso has a much better matchup against Tim Melville, and he should be able to find success in Coors Field. Michael Conforto is also worth consideration, but Alonso is the clear recommendation over at MyBookie.
*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*
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