Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:
Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros
The Seattle Mariners are playing in Houston against the Astros tonight, and Tommy Milone is scheduled to start. On the season, Milone is allowing 2.1 HR/9, and in the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 93 MPH, a fly ball rate of 45%, and a hard hit rate over 35%. Framber Valdez is his opposition, and he is allowing 1.3 HR/9. His fly ball rate is under 20% in the last 15 days, so do not target the Mariners. Roster the required player from the Mariners’ squad in order to roster two Astros’ bats. Vegas has this game set at 10.5 total runs with Valdez and company as -230 betting favorites, giving the Astros an implied run total of 6.5.
Kyle Seager has been one of the best hitters in the league over the last month, so despite his poor matchup tonight against Valdez, he is worth consideration over at Monkey Knife Fight. In his last 10 games, he is hitting over .250 with 4 home runs and 8 RBIs. He will enter tonight’s game with positive 0.059 ISO and 0.010 wOBA differentials against left-handed pitching, and over the last 15 days, his fly ball and hard hit rates are over 35%, accompanying his 93 MPH average exit velocity on batted balls. Next, move on to the Astros. Alex Bregman has been a home run machine this season, hitting 33 in 491 at-bats. In his last 10 games, he is hitting over .400 with 1 home run and 9 RBIs. His fly ball rate over the last 15 days is 43%, so he should start hitting more home runs soon, especially considering his 41% hard hit rate. He enters tonight’s game with a great 0.092 ISO differential against left-handed pitching. Finally, round out the lineup with Yordan Alvarez. Air Yordan, as he is called, is only hitting slightly over .200 in his last 10 games, but he does have 3 home runs and 6 RBIs. In the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 95 MPH, a fly ball rate over 30%, and a hard hit rate over 60%. With 0.092 HR/AB this season, there is no reason to keep him off this recommendation list.
Recommended Batters: Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Seager
Home Run Prop Bet:
Yordan Alvarez (TBA) – Houston Astros – OF
Despite a lack of success at the plate over his last 10 games, Yordan Alvarez has maintained his power, and his advanced metrics suggest that he has been getting unlucky. With a pitcher like Tommy Milone on the mound tonight, there is a decent chance of a home run here. Alex Bregman is also worth consideration, depending on how tight his odds are, and Kyle Seager can be avoided due to Framber Valdez’s ability to keep the ball on the ground of recent.
PrizePicks Over/Under:
N/A
Currently, PrizePicks does not offer a chance to wager on any of these three recommendations. Check back later, as their website is consistently updated throughout the day.
*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*
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