Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:
Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Indians
The Chicago White Sox are in Cleveland tonight against the Indians, and Vegas has this game set at 8.5 total runs, a low total on an 8-game slate. However, the Indians are -299 betting favorites, giving them an implied run total of 5.5. Ivan Nova is on the mound for the White Sox, and this season, he is allowing 1.5 HR/9. Nova, in the last 15 days, has a fly ball rate over 30%, and despite a low hard hit rate over that time span, he has been allowing runs (7 earned in his last 3 games). Cleveland is a tough matchup, and Progressive Field is not pitcher-friendly. Shane Bieber has kept his home run rate rather low, but there is at least one power hitting White Sox player that is worth considering, even in a tough matchup.
The lock of the night is Franmil Reyes. Reyes enters tonight’s game batting sixth with a positive 0.064 ISO differential against right-handed pitching. On the season, he is hitting 0.065 HR/AB, and over the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 96 MPH, a fly ball rate over 40%, and a hard hit rate over 50%. That has translated to a .382 batting average over his last 10 games with 4 home runs and 13 RBIs. Next, move slightly up in the batting order to Carlos Santana. Santana, in the last 15 days, has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 95 MPH, a fly ball rate of 40%, and a hard hit rate of 50%. In his last 10 games, he is hitting over .250 with 2 home runs, and he also possesses a positive ISO differential (0.026) against right-handed pitching. Finally, round out the lineup with Eloy Jimenez. Jimenez has a ton of power, something that seems to be lacking in the White Sox lineup. He is expected to hit sixth tonight, and he has a positive 0.042 ISO differential against right-handed pitching. Over the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 91 MPH, but his fly ball rate is below 30%, and his hard hit rate is below 40%. Even so, the White Sox offer little else in the way of home run upside, so Jimenez is the required recommendation.
Recommended Batters: Franmil Reyes, Carlos Santana, Eloy Jimenez
Home Run Prop Bet:
Franmil Reyes (TBA) – Cleveland Indians – OF
Franmil Reyes has the best advanced metrics over the last 15 days, and he gets a great matchup against the right-handed Ivan Nova. Carlos Santana can also be considered here, assuming his odds to hit a home run are wider than that of Reyes. Eloy Jimenez should be avoided as a solo bet due to his tough matchup against Shane Bieber.
PrizePicks Over/Under:
N/A
Currently, PrizePicks does not offer a chance to wager on any of these three recommendations. Check back later, as their website is consistently updated throughout the day.
*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*
Follow Jason Bales (@BalesTJason)
