Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:
Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers
Julio Urias is scheduled to take the mound for the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight, which is terrible news for the Colorado Rockies, but this is his first start since the end of July, so he could be rusty. Urias is only expected to pitch three innings, as Kenta Maeda will likely enter the game from the bullpen in order to adjust to that style of pitching for the playoffs. The Rockies are not the team to target on Monkey Knife Fight, though; the Dodgers are. Chi Chi Gonzalez is expected to start for the Rockies, and on the season, he has a 8.07 ERA, allowing 12 runs on 10 hits in his last 2 starts. In the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 95 MPH, a fly ball rate of 35%, and a hard hit rate over 45%. His HR/9 is sitting at 2.3. Vegas has this game set at 9.5 total runs, and the Dodgers are -249 betting favorites, giving them an implied run total of 6.0, one of the highest on the slate.
Trevor Story has been the most effective power bat for the Rockies this season, but Nolan Arenado has better advanced metrics over the last 15 days, so he gets the recommendation tonight. In the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 95 MPH, a fly ball rate just under 40%, and a hard hit rate over 45%. That has translated to a .432 batting average, 3 home runs, and 6 RBIs in his last 10 games. Arenado hits left-handed pitching well, and he is worth rostering, even against Urias. Joc Pederson is an absolute lock tonight for the Dodgers. He enters tonight’s game with 0.201 ISO and 0.097 wOBA differentials against right-handed pitching. In the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 94 MPH, a fly ball rate over 40%, and a hard hit rate over 40%, as well. There is absolutely no reason to avoid him, and in his last 10 games, he is hitting over .300 with 3 home runs. Finally, round out the lineup with Cody Bellinger. Bellinger, in the last 15 days, has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 95 MPH, a fly ball rate just under 40%, and a hard hit rate over 50%. He also has great splits against right-handed pitching, entering the game with 0.062 ISO and 0.053 wOBA differentials.
Recommended Batters: Nolan Arenado, Joc Pederson, Cody Bellinger
Home Run Prop Bet:
Joc Pederson (TBA) – Los Angeles Dodgers – OF
Joc Pederson has been seeing the ball better at the plate, and he has better advanced metrics than, Cody Bellinger. Nolan Arenado hits much better in Coors Field, and Julio Urias has been great when healthy this season, so there is no reason to roster him as a solo bet on MyBookie. Pederson is the recommendation tonight.
PrizePicks Over/Under:
N/A
Currently, PrizePicks does not offer a chance to wager on any of these three recommendations. Check back later, as their website is consistently updated throughout the day.
*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*
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