Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:
Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers
Yusei Kikuchi and the Seattle Mariners are set to square off against the Texas Rangers and Brett Martin today. Vegas has this game set at 10 total runs, and the Rangers are -168 betting favorites, giving them an implied run total of 5.7 compared to the Mariners at 4.4. In the last 15 days, Kikuchi has allowed an average exit velocity on batted balls of 92 MPH, a fly ball rate just under 50%, and a hard hit rate over 40%. Martin, on the other hand, has allowed an average exit velocity on batted balls of 93 MPH, a fly ball rate of 34%, and a hard hit rate over 40%. Kikuchi is averaging 2.1 HR/9 compared to Martin at 1.0. The Rangers are the team to target on Monkey Knife Fight tonight.
Monkey Knife Fight requires that bettors roster at least one player from each team, so Tom Murphy is the recommendation from Seattle. He is expected to hit fifth today, and he enters the game with 0.163 ISO and 0.159 wOBA differentials against left-handed pitching. In his last 10 games, he is hitting over .300 with 4 home runs and 8 RBIs, and on the season, he is hitting 0.077 HR/AB. Next, move on to the Rangers. Willie Calhoun is the most powerful batter on the Rangers’ squad, and he is hitting 0.072 HR/AB. In his last 10 games, he is hitting .231 with 4 home runs and 8 RBIs. Oddly enough, he has a 0.115 ISO differential against left-handed pitching, despite hitting from the left side of the plate. In the last 15 days, he has a fly ball rate just under 50%, as well as a hard hit rate over 40%. Finally, round out the lineup with Danny Santana. Despite hitting .150 in his last 10 games, Santana has 3 home runs and 5 RBIs. He has plenty of power, and he is expected to hit fifth today.
Recommended Batters: Tom Murphy, Willie Calhoun, Danny Santana
Home Run Prop Bet:
Tom Murphy (TBA) – Seattle Mariners – C
Even the most powerful catchers in the league tend to get ignored when it comes to home run production, which could widen Tom Murphy’s odds to hit a home run today. He has incredible splits against left-handed pitching, and over his last 10 games, he has proven that he has home run upside. He does get a worse matchup, as far as advanced metrics are concerned, than Willie Calhoun and Danny Santana, but the splits power differential is enough to make up for it.
PrizePicks Over/Under:
N/A
Currently, PrizePicks does not offer a chance to wager on any of these three recommendations. Check back later, as their website is consistently updated throughout the day.
*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*
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