Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:
New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles
The New York Yankees are scheduled to tee off against the Baltimore Orioles and Asher Wojciechowski. Wojciechowski is allowing 1.8 HR/9, and over the last 15 days, his fly ball rate is over 50%, which bodes well for powerful hitters with home run upside. Insert Aaron Judge. Judge is expected to hit second for the Yankees tonight, and he enters the game with 0.050 HR/AB. Vegas has this game set at 10.5 total runs, and the Yankees are -200 favorites, giving them an implied run total of 6.3. Judge will help them hit that run total. In the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 94 MPH and a hard hit rate over 50%. He is struggling to get the ball in the air, but Wojciechowski should help with that. In his last 10 games, Judge only has 1 home run, but his advanced metrics suggest he has been getting unlucky. Next, move down in the batting order to Didi Gregorius, one of the league’s most powerful shortstops. He is hitting over .300 with 2 home runs and 14 RBIs over his last 10 games. He enters tonight’s game with 0.055 ISO and 0.035 wOBA differentials. In the last 15 days, he has a fly ball rate just under 50%, and a hard hit rate of 35%. Finally, round out the lineup with Renato Nunez of the Orioles. Monkey Knife Fight insists that both teams be used in all contests, so unfortunately Gleybor Torres is getting left off the recommendation list. Nunez is a worthwhile replacement, though. He is hitting 0.057 HR/AB, and in the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 92 MPH, a fly ball rate over 50%, and a hard hit rate of 40%. If any of the Orioles are going to hit a home run tonight, it should be him.
Recommended Batters: Aaron Judge, Didi Gregorius, Renato Nunez
Home Run Prop Bet:
Didi Gregorius (+240) – New York Yankees – SS
Didi Gregorius has better advanced metrics over the last 15 days than Aaron Judge, and with Asher Wojciechowski on the mound tonight, he has home run upside written all over him. His home run odds are slightly wider than Judge’s, which is great news for bettors. Gregorius is definitely the solo bet recommendation for this game.
PrizePicks Over/Under:
N/A
Currently, PrizePicks does not offer a chance to wager on any of these three recommendations. Check back later, as their website is consistently updated throughout the day.
*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*
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