Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:
Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox
The Kansas City Royals are travelling into Boston tonight to square off against the Red Sox in a game that Vegas has projected to be a slaughtering. The total runs are set at 11.5, and the Red Sox are -250 betting favorites, giving them an implied run total over 7. Mike Montgomery is on the mound for the Royals, and despite his low fly ball rate over the last 15 days, target the Red Sox’s right-handed batters. J.D. Martinez enters tonight’s game with 0.268 ISO and 0.166 wOBA differentials, and he is hitting 0.060 HR/AB. Over the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 96 MPH, a fly ball rate of 40%, and a hard hit rate over 50%. With a batting average just under .350 in his last 10 games, combined with 4 home runs and 10 RBIs, Martinez is a lock. Michael Chavis also has great power splits against left-handed pitching, sporting a 0.073 ISO differential tonight. In his last 10 games, he is hitting over .300 with 2 home runs and 5 RBIs, and over the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 95 MPH, a fly ball rate just under 40%, and a hard hit rate over 40%. Montgomery is in for a long night. Finally, round out the lineup with Jorge Soler. Rick Porcello has a fly ball rate of 50% in the last 15 days, and Soler is hitting 0.071 HR/AB. He enters tonight’s game with 0.105 ISO and 0.058 wOBA differentials, and his advanced metrics have been solid. In the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 97 MPH, a fly ball rate just under 40%, and a hard hit rate over 60%. If there is one hitter on the Royals team to target, it is Soler.
Recommended Batters: J.D. Martinez, Michael Chavis, Jorge Soler
Home Run Prop Bet:
J.D. Martinez (TBA) – Boston Red Sox – OF
J.D. Martinez has the best advanced metrics, he has seen the most success at the plate over the last 15 days, and his power splits are the best. He is hitting at home tonight against the left-handed Mike Montgomery, and it would be unprofessional to not recommend him as a solo bet on MyBookie, honestly.
PrizePicks Over/Under:
Jorge Soler (OVER 7.0)
Jorge Soler squares off against the right-handed Rick Porcello, and there is plenty of upside for him tonight. He has great power splits, his advanced metrics are solid, and Porcello’s fly ball rate is very high of recent. Soler should be able to take advantage, and he only needs a double, an RBI, and a run to hit value. A home run would just be icing on the cake.
*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*
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