Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:
Pittsburgh Pirates at Colorado Rockies
The Pittsburgh Pirates and Colorado Rockies are likely adjusted to the climate in Coors Field, and tonight’s game should be very high-scoring. Dario Agrazal is scheduled to take the mound for the Pirates, and currently, he is allowing 1.8 HR/9. Antonio Senzatela is on the opposing mound for the Rockies, and he is currently allowing 1.3 HR/9. Vegas has this game set at 14.5 total runs, and the Rockies are -135 betting favorites, giving them an implied run total of 7.9, the highest on the slate. The Pirates are expected to lose, but simultaneously score more runs than any other team playing tonight (expect for the Rockies, obviously). There is absolutely no reason to avoid this game over at Monkey Knife Fight tonight, even if the recommendation itself is boring.
Colin Moran is the best recommendation from the Pirates, as he is hitting .375 with 2 home runs and 10 RBIs in his last 10 games. In the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 93 MPH, a fly ball rate over 30%, and a hard hit rate over 35%. He had two hits, including a double, in the first game of this series, and he will enter tonight’s game with 0.047 ISO and 0.064 wOBA differentials against right-handed pitching. Next, move on to Charlie Blackmon. Blackmon is hitting .400 with 19 home runs at home this season, which is much better than his .248 batting average and 8 home runs on the road. He has positive splits against right-handed pitching, and his advanced metrics over the last 15 days are good. He has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 93 MPH, a fly ball rate over 45%, and a hard hit rate over 40%. He is expected to hit second for the Rockies tonight, and he has great home run upside. Finally, round out the lineup with Nolan Arenado. Arenado is hitting .390 with 4 home runs and 9 RBIs in his last 10 games. He hits significantly better in Coors Field, and he is actually slightly more powerful against right-handed pitching. With 0.065 HR/AB, there is no reason to avoid him tonight.
Recommended Batters: Colin Moran, Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado
Home Run Prop Bet:
Charlie Blackmon (TBA) – Colorado Rockies – OF
Charlie Blackmon will likely have much wider odds to hit a home run tonight than Nolan Arenado, considering he has not done so in over 10 games. Arenado, on the other hand, has 4 home runs in his last 10 games. Blackmon, however, is much better at home, and he has a lot of power against right-handed pitchers in Coors Field. His upside is as great as any tonight.
PrizePicks Over/Under:
N/A
Currently, PrizePicks does not offer a chance to wager on any of these three recommendations. Check back later, as their website is consistently updated throughout the day.
*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*
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