Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:
Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers
Lance Lynn has been great this season, allowing only 0.7 HR/9, but starting for the opposing team is Felix Hernandez. Hernandez currently sports a 2.4 HR/9 ratio, and the Texas Rangers are the team to target on Monkey Knife Fight, especially with only 6 games to choose from. In the last 15 days, Hernandez has a fly ball rate of 66% to go along with his 40% hard hit rate. The Seattle Mariners are actually one of the more home-run-friendly offenses, so finding one player on their team to target will not be hard. Vegas has this game set at 10.5 total runs, and the Rangers are -159 betting favorites, giving them an implied run total of 5.9. The Colorado Rockies and Pittsburgh Pirates game is also worth targeting, but that’s boring.
Kyle Seager has been far too hot at the plate over his last 10 games – hitting over .300 with 3 home runs – to avoid him, even against Lynn. Seager has more power against left-handed pitching, but in the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 95 MPH, a fly ball rate just under 40%, and a hard hit rate over 40%. He is expected to hit fourth tonight for the Mariners, and he has plenty of home run upside. Next, move on to the Rangers. Danny Santana enters tonight’s game with 0.048 ISO and 0.045 wOBA differentials against right-handed pitching, and on the season, he is hitting 0.06 HR/AB. In the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 92 MPH, a fly ball rate over 30%, and a hard hit rate over 40%. That has translated to a lowly .146 batting average, but 2 home runs and 4 RBIs in his last 10 games. He is also hitting significantly better at home, a .311 batting average compared to .275 on the road, as well as 15 home runs compared to 8 on the road. Finally, round out the lineup with Willie Calhoun. He is hitting over .300 with 4 home runs and 7 RBIs in his last 10 games. Like most Rangers’ players, he is hitting better at home. In the last 15 days, Calhoun has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 92 MPH, a fly ball rate just under 50%, and a hard hit rate just under 40%.
Recommended Batters: Kyle Seager, Danny Santana, Willie Calhoun
Home Run Prop Bet:
Willie Calhoun (+210) – Texas Rangers – OF
Kyle Seager is better against left-handed pitching, and Willie Calhoun has slightly better advanced metrics than Danny Santana. It makes the most sense to target the player with the best matchup and best advanced metrics, and that player is Calhoun.
PrizePicks Over/Under:
N/A
Currently, PrizePicks does not offer a chance to wager on any of these three recommendations. Check back later, as their website is consistently updated throughout the day.
*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*
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