Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:
Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox
Ross Detwiler is on the mound tonight for the Chicago White Sox, so it makes sense to target the Minnesota Twins over at Monkey Knife Fight. Jake Odorizzi is scheduled to take the mound on the opposing side of things, and rostering one White Sox’s player against him is worth getting two Twins’ players. Detwiler, over the last 15 days, has a fly ball rate just under 40%, and a hard hit rate just under 35%. Most importantly, he is allowing 3.0 HR/9 this season. Vegas has this game set at 10.5 total runs, and the Twins are -182 betting favorites, giving them an implied run total of 6.1.
To get the White Sox recommendation out of the way, roster Yoan Moncada. In the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 94 MPH, a fly ball rate of 45%, and a hard hit rate the same as his fly ball rate. That has translated to a batting average of .265 and 4 home runs over his last 10 games. Moving onto the Twins, both Nelson Cruz and Miguel Sano are elite options tonight. Cruz, in the last 15 days, has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 94 MPH, a fly ball rate over 30%, and a hard hit rate over 50%. Sano, on the other hand, has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 97 MPH, a fly ball rate over 30%, and a hard hit rate over 60%. Cruz is hitting .357 with 3 home runs in his last 10 games, while Sano is hitting .308 with 4 home runs. Both hitters have positive power splits, entering the game with 0.160 (Cruz) and 0.042 (Sano) ISO differentials against left-handed pitching. Mitch Garver is also worth consideration, but Monkey Knife Fight requires at least one player from each team, and it is near impossible to avoid Cruz or Sano.
Recommended Batters: Yoan Moncada, Nelson Cruz, Miguel Sano
Home Run Prop Bet:
Nelson Cruz (TBA) – Minnesota Twins – OF
Nelson Cruz has better splits against left-handed pitching, and he has very similar advanced metrics to those of Miguel Sano. Yoan Moncada gets a much worse matchup, so stick to one of the two Twins’ recommendations here. Cruz makes the most sense.
PrizePicks Over/Under:
N/A
Currently, PrizePicks does not offer a chance to wager on any of these three recommendations. Check back later, as their website is consistently updated throughout the day.
*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*
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