Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:
Boston Red Sox at Colorado Rockies
Sound the alarm, one of baseball’s most powerful offenses is headed to Colorado tonight. Rick Porcello and the Boston Red Sox are set to square off against Rico Garcia and the Colorado Rockies in a game that Vegas has set at 13.5 total runs. The game is almost even, as far as betting favorites are concerned, so both teams are expected to score slightly under seven runs. The Red Sox are 9th in the league in home runs, while the Rockies are 20th. However, at home, the Rockies are 2nd, losing only to the Red Sox. On the season, Porcello is allowing 1.6 HR/9, and over the last 15 days, he has a fly ball rate of 55%. Garcia, on the other hand, has yet to pitch in a major league game. He allowed 17 home runs in 123.1 innings in the minors this year. Pitching in Coors Field against the Red Sox is not the best way to start a professional career, but when he allows runs, the team should understand. This is the clear-cut game to target on Monkey Knife Fight tonight.
Due to there being plenty of great options on both teams, recommendations tonight are solely based on advanced metrics. The most impressive advanced metrics tonight come via Mookie Betts. In the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 98 MPH, a fly ball rate over 55%, and a hard hit rate the same as his fly ball rate. In his last 10 games, he is hitting .333 with 1 home run and 5 RBIs. He also has eight doubles, and those doubles could turn into home runs when the ball carries in Coors Field. Next, J.D. Martinez, despite his poor splits, has great advanced metrics. Garcia is not going to pitch the entire game, and it is possible that Martinez gets a matchup against a left-hander at some point. Even so, he has home run upside. In the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 95 MPH and a hard hit rate over 55%. His fly ball rate is only 23%, but he should be swinging for home runs in Coors Field. He is hitting over .300 with 3 home runs in his last 10 games, which proves his success despite a lower fly ball rate. Finally, round out the lineup with Nolan Arenado. In the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 94 MPH, a fly ball rate of 50%, and a hard hit rate the same as his fly ball rate. That has translated to a .325 batting average and 6 home runs over his last 10 games. There is simply no reason to avoid him, especially against Porcello. If bettors want to be more aggressive, bet on two home runs tonight for better odds.
Recommended Batters: Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, Nolan Arenado
Home Run Prop Bet:
Nolan Arenado (TBA) – Colorado Rockies – 3B
All three recommendations have great advanced metrics, but Arenado has proven his home run upside at the plate over his last 10 games. Mookie Betts has been consistently hitting doubles, and J.D. Martinez has bad splits against right-handed pitching. Arenado also hits significantly better at home than on the road, and Porcello is susceptible to the long ball.
PrizePicks Over/Under:
N/A
Currently, PrizePicks does not offer a chance to wager on any of these three recommendations. Check back later, as their website is consistently updated throughout the day.
*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*
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