Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:
Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros
Jose Suarez is one of a couple major liabilities on the mound for the Los Angeles Angels. On the season, he has an ERA of 6.75, a 2-4 record, and 16 home runs over 53.1 innings pitched. He is averaging just under 3.0 HR/AB, and his average exit velocity on batted balls over the last 15 days is 97 MPH. Suarez currently has a ground ball rate over 50%, but he has consistently struggled with allowing home runs, so that should increase with time, and his hard hit rate is an astounding 64%. Zack Greinke is on the mound for the Houston Astros, which makes it difficult to recommend any of the Angels’ players, but Mike Trout still exists. This game is set at 9 total runs via Vegas, and the Astros are -264 favorites, giving them an implied run total of 5.7.
As previously mentioned, roster Mike Trout for the Angels, and move on. Trout is hitting 0.099 HR/AB, and he has positive 0.111 ISO and 0.068 wOBA differentials against right-handed pitching. As far as the Astros’ recommendations are concerned, Alex Bregman and Yordan Alvarez are the top two options. Bregman is expected to hit fourth in the batting order, and he enters the game with 0.054 ISO and 0.034 wOBA differentials against left-handed pitching. He is hitting 0.067 HR/AB, and over the last 15 days, his average exit velocity on batted balls is 93 MPH, his fly ball rate is just under 50%, and a hard hit rate is the same as his fly ball rate. Alvarez is expected to bat fifth tonight, and he is hitting 0.095 HR/AB, a number very close to that of Trout. In the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 95 MPH, a fly ball rate over 35%, and a hard hit rate over 50%. Between the 2 players, they have hit a combined 5 home runs in their last 10 games.
Recommended Batters: Mike Trout, Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez
Home Run Prop Bet:
Yordan Alvarez (TBA) – Houston Astros – OF
Without the odds currently released, it makes the most sense to recommend the player with the best chance to hit a home run regardless of odds. That player is Yordan Alvarez. He has better advanced metrics than Alex Bregman, and he gets a much better matchup than Mike Trout.
PrizePicks Over/Under:
N/A
Currently, PrizePicks does not offer a chance to wager on any of these three recommendations. Check back later, as their website is consistently updated throughout the day.
*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*
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