Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:
Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles
The Baltimore Orioles are the most home-run-friendly team in the league, allowing 258 home runs, which tied the major league record with 35 more games to go. Asher Wojciechowski is not a huge part of the reason why, but he has allowed 12 home runs this season in only 49 innings pitched. In the last 15 days, he is sporting a fly ball rate over 60%. Unfortunately, Ryan Yarbrough is scheduled to take the mound for the Tampa Bay Rays, and he has been solid in 2019, allowing only 9 home runs in 105 innings pitched. Even so, rostering one Oriole is worth rostering two Rays. Vegas has this game set at 10 total runs, and the Rays are -206 favorites, giving them an implied run total of 6.0.
Renato Nunez is the Orioles’ best chance at hitting a home run tonight. He is expected to hit fourth, and over the course of the season, he is averaging 0.055 HR/AB. He enters tonight’s game with 0.011 ISO and 0.018 wOBA differentials, and his advanced metrics are good. In the last 15 days, he has a fly ball rate of 55% and a hard hit rate over 30%. Moving on to the part of the lineup that matters, look toward Ji-Man Choi to provide home run upside. Choi is expected to hit third tonight for the Rays, and over the last 15 days, he is averaging an exit velocity of 94 MPH on batted balls. Combine that with his 50% fly ball rate and 45% hard hit rate, and his upside could not be more clear, especially with his 0.075 ISO and 0.078 wOBA differentials against right-handed pitching. Finally, round out the lineup with Austin Meadows. He has been struggling at the plate of recent, but he still has 2 home runs in his last 10 games, and he gets positive power splits tonight, entering the game with 0.020 ISO and 0.061 wOBA differentials. In the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 92 MPH, a fly ball rate over 50%, and a hard hit rate of 35%. The record should be broken tonight.
Recommended Batters: Renato Nunez, Ji-Man Choi, Austin Meadows
Home Run Prop Bet:
Ji-Man Choi (+255) – Tampa Bay Rays – 1B
Ji-Man Choi has better advanced metrics than Austin Meadows, and his odds are wider to hit a home run tonight. With Asher Wojciechowski on the mound, there is no reason to consider Renato Nunez against Ryan Yarbrough as a solo bet. That makes Choi the clear MyBookie recommendation.
PrizePicks Over/Under:
Austin Meadows (OVER 10.0)
Austin Meadows is worth consideration tonight over at PrizePicks due to his home run upside. He has struggled over his last 10 games, hitting under .200, but his advanced metrics suggest that he will start to find success sooner rather than later. Take advantage of his great matchup tonight against Asher Wojciechowski.
*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*
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