Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:
Philadelphia Phillies at Boston Red Sox
Drew Smyly had a couple of impressive pitching outings for the Philadelphia Phillies back toward the end of July, but since then, he has allowed 16 runs in his last 3 games. Tonight, Smyly and company will travel to Boston to square off against the Red Sox in what should be a high-scoring affair. Smyly leads the slate with 2.8 HR/9, and Vegas has this game set at 12 total runs. Rick Porcello and the Red Sox are -162 betting favorites, giving the Red Sox an implied run total of 6.8. The wind is blowing out at nearly 10 MPH in Boston right now, and Smyly has bad advanced metrics. In the last 15 days, he is allowing an average exit velocity on batted balls of 94 MPH, a fly ball rate just under 50%, and a hard hit rate over 50%. Porcello also has a fly ball rate of 50% and a hard hit rate over 30%. This is a great game to target for home runs tonight over at Monkey Knife Fight.
Start with Bryce Harper, who has been absolutely on fire since the Phillies changed their hitting coach. In his last 10 games, Harper is hitting over .300 with 6 home runs and 16 RBIs. In the last 15 days, his average exit velocity on batted balls is 99 MPH, his fly ball rate is 45%, and his hard hit rate is over 60%. Porcello is not the pitcher to target in this game, but Harper makes it easy to roster that one required Phillie. Next, move to the Red Sox’s leadoff hitter, Mookie Betts. In the last 15 days, Betts has shown off quite a bit of power, possessing an average exit velocity on batted balls of 95 MPH, a fly ball rate just under 60%, and a hard hit rate over 45%. Betts hits much better at home, and in his last 10 games, he is hitting .342 with 2 home runs and 6 RBIs. Finally, round out this lineup with J.D. Martinez. Martinez enters tonight’s game with 0.264 ISO and 0.182 wOBA differentials against left-handed pitching. His advanced metrics are down right now, but in his last 10 games, he is still hitting .350 with 3 home runs and 8 RBIs. A great matchup against a left-handed pitcher in Boston is definitely enough to warrant considering Martinez.
Recommended Batters: Bryce Harper, Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez
Home Run Prop Bet:
Bryce Harper (+250) – Philadelphia Phillies – OF
Both Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez are worth consideration as solo home run bets on MyBookie, but Bryce Harper has wide odds for his recent hot streak. The Philadelphia Phillies recently changed their hitting coach, which could have significantly benefited Harper. Even though Drew Smyly is the pitcher to attack, Rick Porcello is also susceptible to surrendering home runs.
PrizePicks Over/Under:
Bryce Harper (OVER 9.0)
Bryce Harper is listed tonight on PrizePicks. He has been far too hot at the plate of recent to not take advantage of this over/under.
Mookie Betts (OVER 11.0)
Mookie Betts is also available tonight on PrizePicks. He is playing at home tonight, and his home run upside is easily noticeable based on his recent advanced metrics. Betts has too much upside to ignore him on PrizePicks tonight.
J.D. Martinez (OVER 9.5)
Luckily for bettors, J.D. Martinez is also available tonight on PrizePicks. That makes all three recommendations tonight available to bet on. Martinez is great against left-handed pitching, and Drew Smyly has come back down to earth. This is an easy recommendation.
*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*
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