Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:
Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers
The Los Angeles Angels and Texas Rangers are scheduled for a double-header today into tonight at Globe Life Park. It looks like both Joe Palumbo and Brock Burke will be called up from Triple-A Nashville to pitch against the Angels. The Angels, on the other hand, will start Andrew Heaney in the first game and call up Jaime Barria from Triple-A Salt Lake for the second. After all is said and done, Burke and Barria should take the mound in tonight’s game, which makes it a great game to target on Monkey Knife Fight. Burke is currently sporting a 7.88 ERA in Triple-A after 2 starts, and Barria, after 7 starts in the majors this season, has an ERA of 6.62. Both teams will score early and often, and Vegas has the game set at 11.5 total runs. The Angels are slight betting favorites, giving them a slightly higher implied run total of 6.4.
It is impossible to ignore Mike Trout in a matchup this great, so roster him first. He is expected to hit second tonight, assuming he does not get a rest after the first game. On the season, he is hitting 0.099 HR/AB, the highest in the league, and his advanced metrics are great over the last 15 days. He has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 91 MPH, a fly ball rate over 50%, and a hard hit rate over 40%. In his last 10 games, he is hitting just under .300 with 3 home runs and 7 RBIs. Next, move down one spot in the batting order to Shohei Ohtani. He is expected to hit third tonight, and on the season, he is hitting 0.059 HR/AB. In the last 15 days, his fly ball rate is low at 25%, but his line drive rate is 33%, his hard hit rate is 50%, and his average exit velocity on batted balls is 94 MPH. That has translated to a batting average of .429, 1 home run, and 10 RBIs in his last 10 games. If Ohtani’s fly ball rate starts increasing, so will his home run production. Finally, round out the lineup with Willie Calhoun. In his last 10 games, he is hitting over .300 with 2 home runs and 2 RBIs. On the season, the new Rangers’ outfielder is hitting 0.062 HR/AB, and his advanced metrics are great. In the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 91 MPH, a fly ball rate over 50%, and a hard hit rate over 30%. All of these batters get a great matchup against non-major-league-level pitchers, and home runs are bound to materialize.
Recommended Batters: Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, Willie Calhoun
Home Run Prop Bet:
Mike Trout (TBA) – Los Angeles Angels – OF
Mike Trout will likely have the tightest odds to hit a home run tonight, but for great reason. Any time Trout gets a matchup against a Triple-A pitcher, bet on him to take that pitcher deep. Shohei Ohtani can be considered here, as well, but Trout is the better recommendation.
PrizePicks Over/Under:
N/A
Currently, PrizePicks does not offer a chance to wager on any of these three recommendations. Check back later, as their website is consistently updated throughout the day.
*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*
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