Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:
Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies
Saturdays are for the Colorado Rockies. The Miami Marlins are traveling into Coors Field, and with Hector Noesi scheduled to take the mound, this recommendation couldn’t get any easier. On the season, Noesi is allowing 3.3 HR/9, and over the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 90 MPH, a fly ball rate over 50%, and a hard hit rate just under 40%. German Marquez will take the mound for the Rockies, and his exit velocity on batted balls is poor at 95 MPH, surrendering a 44% hard hit rate. Unfortunately, his ground ball rate is over 55%, but rostering one player from the Marlins’ team is worth getting two players from the Rockies’ team, especially since Vegas has this game set at 12 total runs.
Trevor Story is a lock. On the season, he is hitting 0.067 HR/AB, the most on the Rockies’ team. In his last 10 games, Story is hitting just under .350 with 2 home runs and 4 RBIs. Most importantly, his advanced metrics over the last 15 days are incredible. He is sporting an average exit velocity on batted balls of 98 MPH, a fly ball rate of 35%, and a hard hit rate over 50%. Next, look toward Ryan McMahon for home run upside. Charlie Blackmon is also worth consideration, but McMahon’s advanced metrics are better. In the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 97 MPH, a fly ball rate over 35%, and a hard hit rate over 55%. This translated to a .242 batting average, 3 home runs, and 7 RBIs over his last 10 games. On the season, McMahon is hitting over .300 in Coors Field, but .226 away from home. In 5 games this season against the Miami Marlins, he is hitting .353 with 1 home run. Finally, round out the lineup with Brian Anderson. Anderson is the Marlins’ most powerful hitter with 0.040 HR/AB, and he gets a slight advantage against right-handed pitching, sporting 0.015 ISO and 0.065 wOBA differentials. In the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 93 MPH, a fly ball rate of 45%, and a hard hit rate over 40%, translating to a .333 batting average with 3 home runs in his last 10 games. Anderson will see a massive bump in potential upside moving from one of the league’s most pitcher-friendly stadiums to the most hitter-friendly.
Recommended Batters: Trevor Story, Ryan McMahon, Brian Anderson
Home Run Prop Bet:
Ryan McMahon (TBA) – Colorado Rockies – 2B
Ryan McMahon will likely have significantly wider odds to hit a home run tonight than Trevor Story. As long as Story comes in tighter than +220, and McMahon comes in wider than +250, bet McMahon. If Story happens to be closer to McMahon than expected, bet Story, as he has better advanced metrics over the last 15 days.
PrizePicks Over/Under:
N/A
Currently, PrizePicks does not offer a chance to wager on any of these three recommendations. Check back later, as their website is consistently updated throughout the day.
*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*
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