Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:
Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox
The Baltimore Orioles are the worst team in the league at keeping the ball inside the boundaries of the field, allowing 250 home runs this season. The next closest is the Seattle Mariners at 207 home runs. Tonight, the Boston Red Sox square off against the Orioles, and Aaron Brooks is scheduled to take the mound. Brooks is allowing 2.2 HR/9, and in the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 94 MPH, a fly ball rate of 45%, and a hard hit rate the same as his fly ball rate. Rick Porcello will be opposite Brooks, and he has a fly ball rate over 40% in the last 15 days. Rostering one Oriole is worth it, as long as it means bettors get exposure to two Red Sox. Vegas has this game set at 11.5 total runs, and the Red Sox are -264 betting favorites, giving them an implied run total of 7.3.
Getting the Baltimore Orioles’ recommendation out of the way, roster Anthony Santander. He has positive splits against right-handed pitching, entering the game with 0.053 ISO and 0.036 wOBA differentials. With 0.043 HR/AB, the power is definitely there. In the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 92 MPH, a fly ball rate of 45%, and a hard hit rate over 30%. Moving on to the players that matter, start with Rafael Devers. Dever is great against right-handed pitching, and he enters tonight’s game with 0.091 ISO and 0.104 wOBA differentials. On the season, he is hitting more home runs per at-bat than Mookie Betts (0.051), and his advanced metrics are solid. In his last 10 games, he is hitting over .350 with 4 home runs and 10 RBIs. Next, move down two spots in the batting order to J.D. Martinez. Martinez is the Red Sox’s most powerful batter. He is hitting 0.057 HR/AB, and over the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 92 MPH, a fly ball rate of 35%, and a hard hit rate over 50%. In his last 10 games, Martinez is hitting over .400 with 3 home runs and 5 RBIs. There are other Red Sox worth consideration, but these are the best two options.
Recommended Batters: Anthony Santander, Rafael Devers, J.D. Martinez
Home Run Prop Bet:
Rafael Devers (TBA) – Boston Red Sox – 3B
Rafael Devers gets the better matchup, as J.D. Martinez tends to hit left-handed pitching better than right-handed. Devers also benefits more from hitting in Boston than Martinez does, and he has been hot at the plate of recent. His odds will likely be wider than Martinez’s, as well.
PrizePicks Over/Under:
N/A
Currently, PrizePicks does not offer a chance to wager on any of these three recommendations. Check back later, as their website is consistently updated throughout the day.
*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*
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