Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:
Cleveland Indians at New York Yankees
The New York Yankees and Cleveland Indians game is set at 10.5 total runs via Vegas, which is the highest on tonight’s slate. Chad Green and the Yankees are -150 betting favorites, giving them an implied run total of 5.9 compared to the Indians at 4.8. Adam Plutko is scheduled to take the mound for the Indians, and he is currently allowing 2.5 HR/9. In the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 93 MPH, a fly ball rate over 45%, and a hard hit rate of 35%. Green has been slightly better, but his advanced metrics are still questionable with an average exit velocity on batted balls of 92 MPH, a fly ball rate of 30%, and a hard hit rate of 40%. Two Yankees and one Indian is the formula for success tonight.
Start with the Yankees most impressive hitter at the moment, Giovanny Urshela. In the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 99 MPH, a fly ball rate of 44%, and a hard hit rate just under 60%. That has translated to a batting average just under .500 with 7 home runs and 15 RBIs in his last 10 games. There is absolutely no reason to avoid Urshela tonight. Next, move up one spot in the batting order to Didi Gregorius. Gregorius enters tonight’s game with 0.093 ISO and 0.034 wOBA differentials against right-handed pitching, as well as 0.057 HR/AB. In the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 91 MPH and fly ball and hard hit rates over 30%. With 2 home runs in his last 10 games, the upside is definitely there. Finally, round out the lineup with Jason Kipnis. In his last 10 games, Kipnis is hitting just under .300 with 2 home runs and 9 RBIs. He is starting to display an impressive amount of power, and hitting in New York should help his case. He will enter tonight’s game with 0.161 ISO and 0.141 wOBA differentials against right-handed pitching, and his advanced metrics are solid. In his last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 95 MPH, a fly ball rate of 45%, and a hard hit rate of 55%. One of these three recommendations should get the job done.
Recommended Batters: Giovanny Urshela, Didi Gregorius, Jason Kipnis
Home Run Prop Bet:
Giovanny Urshela (+245) – New York Yankees – 3B
It is impossible to ignore what Giovanny Urshela is doing at the plate right now. Didi Gregorius actually has tighter odds to hit a home run tonight than Urshela, so it makes little sense to recommend Gregorius as the solo bet. Jason Kipnis is worth consideration at +380, but Urshela is a much safer bet.
PrizePicks Over/Under:
N/A
Currently, PrizePicks does not offer a chance to wager on any of these three recommendations. Check back later, as their website is consistently updated throughout the day.
*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*
Follow Jason Bales (@BalesTJason)
